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Chinese envoy's visit to Pyongyang

China sent a qualified envoy to Pyongyang. The problem was that the envoy was “minimally” qualified. North Korea knew it was a test. The North Korean leader let Xi's envoy “wait around” for four days, causing him much anxiety, and yet never showed up to see him. Many Chinese took this as an insult. Such feelings, however, may be unwarranted. The envoy, after all, fulfilled his mission well, meeting with North Korean officials appropriate to his rank. Meeting Kim, though, is another realm.

2017-11-28 17:55

Possibility of China-North Korea summit

There is a growing interest in whether changes will occur in relations between North Korea and China as the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China is over. China-North Korea relations have stagnated in recent years. Nevertheless, there are a few indications for this prospect not to be ignored. If the summit between the top leaders of Beijing and Pyongyang is held, it will render a very significant new variable in geopolitics in the region. Seoul and Washington should be prepared for this contingency.

2017-11-14 17:08

Trump and the decline of U.S. image

No doubt, Trump will be showered with uncommon hospitality in South Korea when he visits here next week. The robustness of the bilateral alliance and the resilience of shared democratic values will be underscored, not to mention their firm deterrence posture against North Korea’s belligerence. That hides the underneath simmering debate and uneasiness about President Donald Trump and the way he handles the North Korean issue.

2017-10-31 17:35

Trump's silence on THAAD retaliation

The Trump administration has so far shown little regard for South Korea’s suffering from the Chinese economic retaliation for hosting THAAD. Whether it is due to a lack of awareness at Capitol Hill or simply being a spectator who “watches a fire across the river,” Washington’s failure to show solidarity with its ally and recognition of the latter’s distress is quietly hurting U.S. standing in the region. Due to China’s retaliation over THAAD, South Korea’s economy may suffer as much as an 8.5 trillion won ($7.5 billion) loss in 2017, according to estimates by Hyundai Research Institute.

2017-10-17 17:18

Washington and Beijing's options on North Korea

North Korea’s sixth nuclear test is seen by many as a “watershed” moment. If so, will Washington and Beijing’s calculus on North Korea change accordingly? Not likely, for the short term. At this time, the United States will likely continue its “maximum pressure” on North Korea, with harsher sanctions. For China, it will try to “manage” the situation, by its usual appeal for “calm” on all sides. In short, Washington and Beijing are not likely to diverge much from their preexisting preferences for the status quo. This is bad. But they think other options are worse. Despite the North’s latest a...

2017-09-05 17:56

Is Sino-N. Korea alliance more resilient than ROK-US alliance?

Last time, we examined why China has never officially proposed to abolish or abandon its alliance with North Korea, since 1961. We also looked at why China also makes pains not to draw attention to it. When comparing the China-North Korea alliance with the South Korea-U.S. alliance, one also finds, surprisingly, that the North Korea-China alliance was “designed,” from the beginning, to be very difficult to break than the alliance between South Korea and the U.S. In the case of the South Korea-U.S. alliance, the treaty would be simply terminated if either side makes notifications of such inte...

2017-08-22 17:45

Are N. Korea and China still allies?

The news story that the Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping underscored China's "blood alliance" with North Korea in his meeting with President Moon Jae-in is still generating a flurry of speculation in the public sphere. Whether Xi really used the particular word at the G-20 summit is one thing, but what is more important is whether Pyongyang and Beijing can be still defined as allies in this 21st century? And from an analytical perspective, the answer is yes. According to Cheong Wa Dae, Xi said, “China has maintained a blood alliance with North Korea. There have been many changes, ye...

2017-08-08 17:50

[Roundtable] N. Korea crosses red line, now into red zone

For the first time, there is a real danger with North Korea. It is no longer a game. South Korea should not be complacent. On the surface, the most important outcome of the summit between President Moon Jae-in and his U.S. counterpart Donald Trump was that the U.S. offered its support for South Korea to “take the lead” in dealing with North Korea; the unspoken real meaning was that the U.S. must not carry out preemptive military operations on North Korea without the prior full consultation and full consent from South Korea.

2017-07-25 17:33

Moon Jae-in's foreign policy challenge

The G20 meeting in Germany served as a good platform for President Moon to display his flair for public diplomacy. But when it came to the actual outcome, a local newspaper gave a rather harsh pronouncement: “fruitless.” The categorical summary is not Moon’s fault, but rather it reflects the barren international environment with reduced room for diplomacy.

2017-07-11 17:05

Moon's bigger challenge in Washington

For President Moon Jae-in, crafting a successful photo-op moment with President Donald Trump is not the biggest challenge he will face during their first summit later this week. His bigger and more important challenge is to beat the widespread (and quite persistent) perception that he is another Roh Moo-hyun. It was psychiatrist Karl Menninger who observed decades ago that attitudes and perception are more important than facts and reality. President Moon has some work to do on Washington’s perception of him. Most of all, the Washington policy community remains quite suspicious that the Moon ...

2017-06-27 17:37

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