Climate change: race against time

By Andrew Hammond

Less than 100 days from the landmark 26th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 26) climate summit, concerns are growing about U.K. preparedness for hosting the event, as a landmark U.N. report released Aug. 9 gives the world body's strongest warning yet on the perils of global warming.

The report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change pulls no punches on the big changes forecast, warning a "code red for humanity" in the words of U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. The report argues that "there is no time for delay and no room for excuses to avert catastrophe."

The findings will put extra pressure on the U.K.-hosted COP 26 climate event which is the "jewel in the crown" in a so-called "super year" of sustainability events in 2021 including the U.N. Biodiversity, U.N. Food Systems and U.N. Nutrition for Growth Summits.

What makes this a potential once-in-a-generation period too is that the presidency of COP 26 is shared between the Italian and U.K. governments which are also the chairs of the 2021 G20 and G7 respectively.

Taken together, this presents an unparalleled opportunity to create synergies between the summits and to leverage the G20 and G7 to increase the chances of successful outcomes at the environmental events.

Yet, there are worries that the U.K. government is not remotely as prepared as the French were in the build-up to the last big global environmental event: the Paris COP 21 summit. To be fair, this is partly because of the pandemic, but the fact remains that Paris threw the full weight of the state behind the 2015 talks with then-Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, who was in the 1980s France's youngest-ever prime minister, the most effective ever COP president.

It's a stark contrast from this year's COP chief Alok Sharma, the former U.K. business secretary. To be sure, Sharma is doing extensive diplomatic legwork, having flown to at least 30 countries over the past seven months, including some of the U.K.'s travel "red" list such as Bangladesh with his ministerial exemption from quarantine.

However, even Sharma's allies admit he lacks Fabius' gravitas and global connections. Further up the U.K. political food chain too, Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab and Chancellor Rishi Sunak are not global political "heavyweights" either, and have all been criticized for failing (yet) to put urgency behind the talks.

Take the example of Johnson whose efforts, such as they are, to meet the challenge of net zero is falling far short of that needed. All too often, his climate change strategy seems to amount to encouraging everyone to have their own electric car, a solution that is not feasible given that there aren't enough rare earth materials in the world to replace every U.K. car currently in use, let alone right across the globe.

The clear danger is that U.K. under-preparedness not only translates into a weak COP 26 outcome, bad as that would be. In addition, it could unravel this year's wider sustainability agenda.

Yet, with around three months left until COP 26, all may not be lost if there is now a concerted U.K. campaign of leadership. In part, this is because of the sea-change in U.S. leadership in 2021, and the fact that the pandemic has underlined that no nation can now deny a globalized world faces interconnected threats which require far-reaching and coordinated action.

But the biggest change factor is U.S. leadership. Biden's big initiative is a plan to cut by 2030 greenhouse emissions by at least 50 percent below 2005 levels, approximately doubling the previous U.S. promise, and this is stimulating activity in other nations too.

Japan committed soon afterwards to a reduction of emissions by 46 percent in 2030 compared to 2013 levels. Key emerging markets including Brazil, South Africa and India are also working to strengthen their so-called nationally determined contributions (NDCs) pledged at Paris in 2015 to cut emissions.

So rather than Johnson "pulling a rabbit out of the hat," the success of November depends much more on U.S. diplomacy to convince others to step up to the plate. To persuade large emerging markets to increase their carbon-cutting, the industrialized world led by Washington will also need to increase aid in a context where the U.N. Environment Programme estimates there remains an annual $70 billion gap for addressing global climate impacts.

The single biggest relationship where U.S. diplomacy is needed is that with China which was key to delivering the Paris deal. Biden is therefore pushing Beijing hard for a new bold commitment to reciprocate the 2030 one he has announced.

If China were to make such a verifiable, bold new pledge, the EU would provide a third leg of the stool to get a deal over the line in November. Collectively, the 27-nation European club plus China and the United States account for around half of global climate emissions and the triumvirate are critical to a positive outcome.

With the outcome of COP 26 very much in the balance, massive momentum is therefore needed in the weeks ahead. It is Biden, not Johnson, who can potentially provide this impetus by leveraging U.S. influence to encourage more key countries to reduce emissions faster and deeper in what is now a race against time.

Andrew Hammond (andrewkorea@outlook.com) is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.