By Andrew Hammond
Tensions are mounting between Iran and the West amid multiple maritime incidents in the most sensitive transportation choke point for global energy supplies.
On July 30, an oil tanker operated by an Israeli-owned company was attacked by a drone off Oman, killing a U.K. and Romanian national. The United States, United Kingdom and Israel have blamed Iran for the attack, a claim it strongly denies.
Add to this combustible mix what appears to be a Panama-flagged ship hijacked by armed men Aug. 3 in the Gulf of Oman. The vessel was seized off the coast of the United Arab Emirates as it neared the Straits of Hormuz through which one fifth of the world's oil, a quarter of liquefied natural gas and half a trillion dollars of trade pass.
Given the recent maritime mayhem in the region, further such incidents cannot be ruled out soon. To this end, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operation advised shipping in the Gulf of Oman to exercise extreme caution in the coming days.
The rise in tensions between Tehran and the West, as the clock runs down on nuclear deal negotiations in Vienna between the two sets of powers, is far from the first time in recent years that Iran has tested the resolve of Western allies.
In summer 2019, for instance, with a transition of prime ministerial power underway in London, Iran seized a U.K.-flagged tanker as it headed to Dubai from the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas. The raid came after authorities in Gibraltar seized an Iranian tanker carrying $130 million in crude oil on suspicion it was breaking EU sanctions by taking the oil to Syria.
With the global economy continuing to be lubricated by oil, despite a growing shift toward cleaner energies, the 2019 attack on the U.K.-flagged ship saw the Brent crude price spike straight after. To be sure, tankers guided by satellite can be redirected to replace ships in distress, but the oil and wider energy industry are nonetheless worried by the threat hanging over the busy Middle Eastern shipping lanes and the valuable commodity cargo that travels through it.
Even before the hijacking, Western powers were considering their response to July 30's drone attack. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that an "appropriate response" would follow, while Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett warned that we "know how to send a message to Iran in our own way."
What exactly these responses will look like is not yet clear, however, it is quite likely that talks are already underway in the West about how best to protect maritime traffic in the region in coming weeks. In 2019, then-outgoing U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May initially decided that the best step was to put together a European-maritime protection mission to support safe passage of crew and cargo in the Strait of Hormuz. Within this diplomatic-speak lay an important U.K. decision in favor of Europe's continued support for the Iran nuclear deal in the face of then-U.S. President Donald Trump's opposition.
Atlanticist supporters of then-incoming Prime Minister Boris Johnson pushed for U.S. involvement in the plans. Ultimately, Johnson included the United Kingdom in a U.S.-led naval operation to protect commercial shipping which included Saudi Arabia and Australia. However, most European governments declined to participate, fearful of critically undermining the 2015 nuclear accord with Tehran which was destabilized by U.S. withdrawal under Trump.
A key, growing challenge for Europe here, now that Trump has left office, is that Iran has indicated its own weakening commitment to the 2015 agreement too, despite some reported progress in Vienna talks. While Iran's new President Ebrahim Raisi has long voiced skepticism of the accord, even his predecessor Hassan Rouhani, who initially backed it, said Tehran would not reverse its decision to increase uranium enrichment beyond the limits set by the deal.
One of the other broader issues in play following the recent maritime mayhem is the growing alliance between Iran, China and Russia. These three powers have in recent years conducted unprecedented trilateral naval drills in key waterways, including the north Indian Ocean and Sea of Oman.
Russia and China, also signatories to the 2015 Iran deal and who favor its continuation, have previously pushed for the creation of a new collective security and cooperation organization in the Persian Gulf, including proposals for establishing demilitarized zones in the region, rejecting the permanent deployment of non-regional states. And this at the same time that the presence of Russian and Chinese naval vessels in Iranian ports has reportedly increased significantly from time to time.
Taken together, the recent maritime mayhem in the Middle East therefore has potentially much wider economic and geopolitical ramifications. While the full scope of Western responses to recent incidents is not yet clear, expect enhanced protection of these commercial waterways to be high on the agenda of diplomatic discussions in the days to come.
Andrew Hammond (andrewkorea@outlook.com) is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.
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On July 30, an oil tanker operated by an Israeli-owned company was attacked by a drone off Oman, killing a U.K. and Romanian national. The United States, United Kingdom and Israel have blamed Iran for the attack, a claim it strongly denies.
Add to this combustible mix what appears to be a Panama-flagged ship hijacked by armed men Aug. 3 in the Gulf of Oman. The vessel was seized off the coast of the United Arab Emirates as it neared the Straits of Hormuz through which one fifth of the world's oil, a quarter of liquefied natural gas and half a trillion dollars of trade pass.
Given the recent maritime mayhem in the region, further such incidents cannot be ruled out soon. To this end, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operation advised shipping in the Gulf of Oman to exercise extreme caution in the coming days.
The rise in tensions between Tehran and the West, as the clock runs down on nuclear deal negotiations in Vienna between the two sets of powers, is far from the first time in recent years that Iran has tested the resolve of Western allies.
In summer 2019, for instance, with a transition of prime ministerial power underway in London, Iran seized a U.K.-flagged tanker as it headed to Dubai from the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas. The raid came after authorities in Gibraltar seized an Iranian tanker carrying $130 million in crude oil on suspicion it was breaking EU sanctions by taking the oil to Syria.
With the global economy continuing to be lubricated by oil, despite a growing shift toward cleaner energies, the 2019 attack on the U.K.-flagged ship saw the Brent crude price spike straight after. To be sure, tankers guided by satellite can be redirected to replace ships in distress, but the oil and wider energy industry are nonetheless worried by the threat hanging over the busy Middle Eastern shipping lanes and the valuable commodity cargo that travels through it.
Even before the hijacking, Western powers were considering their response to July 30's drone attack. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that an "appropriate response" would follow, while Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett warned that we "know how to send a message to Iran in our own way."
What exactly these responses will look like is not yet clear, however, it is quite likely that talks are already underway in the West about how best to protect maritime traffic in the region in coming weeks. In 2019, then-outgoing U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May initially decided that the best step was to put together a European-maritime protection mission to support safe passage of crew and cargo in the Strait of Hormuz. Within this diplomatic-speak lay an important U.K. decision in favor of Europe's continued support for the Iran nuclear deal in the face of then-U.S. President Donald Trump's opposition.
Atlanticist supporters of then-incoming Prime Minister Boris Johnson pushed for U.S. involvement in the plans. Ultimately, Johnson included the United Kingdom in a U.S.-led naval operation to protect commercial shipping which included Saudi Arabia and Australia. However, most European governments declined to participate, fearful of critically undermining the 2015 nuclear accord with Tehran which was destabilized by U.S. withdrawal under Trump.
A key, growing challenge for Europe here, now that Trump has left office, is that Iran has indicated its own weakening commitment to the 2015 agreement too, despite some reported progress in Vienna talks. While Iran's new President Ebrahim Raisi has long voiced skepticism of the accord, even his predecessor Hassan Rouhani, who initially backed it, said Tehran would not reverse its decision to increase uranium enrichment beyond the limits set by the deal.
One of the other broader issues in play following the recent maritime mayhem is the growing alliance between Iran, China and Russia. These three powers have in recent years conducted unprecedented trilateral naval drills in key waterways, including the north Indian Ocean and Sea of Oman.
Russia and China, also signatories to the 2015 Iran deal and who favor its continuation, have previously pushed for the creation of a new collective security and cooperation organization in the Persian Gulf, including proposals for establishing demilitarized zones in the region, rejecting the permanent deployment of non-regional states. And this at the same time that the presence of Russian and Chinese naval vessels in Iranian ports has reportedly increased significantly from time to time.
Taken together, the recent maritime mayhem in the Middle East therefore has potentially much wider economic and geopolitical ramifications. While the full scope of Western responses to recent incidents is not yet clear, expect enhanced protection of these commercial waterways to be high on the agenda of diplomatic discussions in the days to come.
Andrew Hammond (andrewkorea@outlook.com) is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.
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