Kim Jong-un in PyeongChang

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un rides a ski lift at Masikryong Resort in the North where members of a joint inter-Korean team are expected to practice. / Yonhap

By Oh Young-jin

So far, there has been little to divert from our familiar North Korean playbook. Leader Kim Jong-un has switched to conciliatory tactics. South Korea has jumped at the chance to achieve anything close to a more stable form of lasting peace.

The result is the first high-level inter-Korean contact since the Moon Jae-in administration's May inauguration. Now Pyongyang is expected to send a large cheer squad and a token number of athletes to the PyeongChang Winter Olympics. The two Koreas are likely to march under a common flag and have a joint women's hockey team.

It is a meeting of political necessities _ Seoul wants no war and Pyongyang wants a respite from the relentless pressure applied by the United States for the North's nuclear and missile programs. U.S. President Donald Trump has been reduced to a reluctant bystander for now, agreeing to delay ROK-U.S. joint military exercises as the North demanded and the South requested.

But going fast forward to the post-Games days is a trip to the past.

When the Games are finished and the teams have gone home, the Moon administration would run out of excuses to keep the impatient Trump at bay.

Trump would go after the North with the even greater determination. He may as well think that the Olympic truce could give the North extra time to finesse its weapons of mass destruction that could hit Washington, D.C. as well as San Francisco.
Of course, the Moon government would again ask Trump to give peace a chance, pointing out that the goodwill between the two Koreas was "confirmed" during the Games.

President Moon could not afford to insist on staying the course any longer without damaging the ROK-U.S. alliance.

What would be the game changer that could reset the situation or give such an impression that it forces the U.S. to give a new lease to the life of a short Olympic detente?

The surprise appearance of Kim Jong-un at the opening or closing ceremony of the Games may qualify as one such situation.

Moon and Kim shaking hands in front of the world would strengthen Moon's hand in persuading Trump to let Moon handle the North. Moon could tell Trump that he (Moon) could have Kim call a moratorium on the test and development of the North's nukes and intercontinental ballistic missiles. Trump wouldn't like it, but could allow Moon to lead for a while longer because of the lack of alternatives.

This would buy Kim more time, easing the pressure from the United Nations sanctions and enabling him to engage in adroit diplomatic acrobatics. The North could talk more with the South and then with the U.S. or pull out, as it did successfully in the lead-up to the 1994 Agreed Framework. In that deal, Washington and Pyongyang agreed to stop the North's nuclear program in return for providing energy. Of course, it turned out to be a masquerade by the North to dupe the world and press on to expand its nuclear options to both plutonium and uranium./

South and North Korean teams march under their common flag at the opening ceremony of the 2006 Torino Winter Olympics. / Yonhap

Kim's PyeongChang visit could also serve the young Kim one other purpose _ gaining the international prestige he desires. He has not met any important leaders of global status, not even Xi Jinping of China, the pariah state's only supposed benefactor.

His father, Kim Jong-il, was rumored to be jealous when President Kim Dae-jung won the Nobel Peace Prize alone for holding the first inter-Korean summit with him in 2000.

The son would likely be as attention-eager and affection-craving as his father. That is not just in their DNA but also in dictators' common blood.

PyeongChang would give him a chance to get that need satiated without the cumbersome preparations required for a full-fledged summit like the ones in 2000 and 2007. The North Korean propaganda machine definitely would go at full throttle to make a bigger god of the young pudgy dictator and the look-a-like of his grandfather and the country's founder Kim Il-sung.

The wretched 25 million North Koreans would be left with no choice but to adore him or pretend to do so, making Kim happy to see his rule consolidated.

Of course, there would be risks for Kim.

One is a coup by his top aides who are weary of his frequent changes of mood that could put them in front of the firing squad.

Or a movie-like American assassination attempt could kill him in a car accident, cause him to have a fatal fall from the stage at the Olympic ceremonies, or have a drug-induced heart attack.

Few would miss Kim, but his absence could trigger chaos _ floods of refugees or the possibility of nuclear weapons ending up in the wrong hands.

This imaginary scenario of Kim's PyeongChang visit would only confirm the essence of the Korean problem _ the lack of viable options. But that confining reality may be based on our assumption. If so, it would be better to move the frame than being stuck in it. In other words, let's have him, if he comes.

Oh Young-jin (foolsdie5@ktimes.com, foolsdie@gmail.com) is digital managing editor of The Korea Times.