By Bernard Rowan
The military alliance between South Korea and the United States is a fundamental commitment of both nations. U.S. Vice President Mike Pence and South Korean acting President Hwang Kyo-ahn have reaffirmed it, including at their recent visit to the Demilitarized Zone. However, President Trump's bluff-or-gaffe about a naval deployment has sowed unnecessary frustration in South Korea and invited a climate of misperception. How should we view this development?
In response to the promised if failed North Korean missile launch and hyperbolic rhetoric from Pyongyang, President Trump said he sent an "armada" of ships and submarines to Korea. It sounded like a direct facing down of Kim Jong-un's threats about military exercises, South Korea, and the United States. Kim and his minions often state everyone will die in a preemptive strike. Of late, the Korean government and the United States have repeated that attacks will meet with a firm response. Trump's aides speak of an end to the Obama era of "strategic patience" about North Korea. The purpose is firm resolve.
But, in fact, Trump had sent the ships to Australia! These assets may join current maneuvers soon, but this revelation undercut America's credibility. Despite denials by Press Secretary Sean Spicer, Trump looks foolish to stupid.
It's also dangerous. We should remember the South and the United States have begun military exercises that each year see the North scornfully threaten any provocations with overwhelming carnage in response, or other variants of this tune. We want them to believe we mean what we say about their threatened attacks.
We should remember the morass in Syria isn't over, and Trump has put Russia and Iran on alert about their responsibility. The Russians have taken to flying their nuclear-capable bombers over Alaska. Foreign Minister Lavrov proudly huddled with his Iranian and Syrian counterparts to declare the U.S. better not launch any more missiles into Syria. Putin said the same.
Trump pressed Xi Jinping to do more than just halt coal shipments to Pyongyang. I don't know if China's done more, but they've placed their army divisions and air force on high alert in case of any incident.
Robert Jervis wrote a classic text on the role of perceptions in foreign affairs, entitled Perception and Misperception in International Politics. It remains relevant as a guide to policy analysis and leadership. Misdirection has its uses. However, the heated declaration of a military move that didn't happen isn't a good tactic. It confuses military leaders, alienates friends and likely leaves foes laughing.
A half fake deployment also decreases the likelihood of an enemy believing other promises that matter. At this stage in the early months of Trump's presidency, all signs point to an absence of thorough organization at the top and a style of reactive rhetoric. The taste of the President for spouting responses lacking truth and turning them into public spectacle isn't leadership. He shouldn't run security relations on the model of his campaign.
Building pressure on the North becomes a goal for American policy. This stance has supporters, and it earns generally warm if cautious support from Korean and other quarters tired of unfruitful aid and diplomatic overtures to Pyongyang. However, it's important to remember that ratcheting up expectations on the heels of hot words and fools' misdirection reduces our power. The North's military means need sober statements and deterrent postures. The risks to South Korea are genuine.
Nothing about the Chinese military moves and statements signal they've warmed much to Trump's rhetoric. Perhaps more ameliorating actions will come, but the needed mutual accord between the two regional superpowers hasn't occurred. Too many interests remain to divide China and the United States. The problem transcends talk over chocolate cake at Mar-a-Lago.
The role of the United States in the security of Northeast Asia is real. It's developed over more than half a century. The lives and investments of Koreans and Americans, past and present, merit better leadership. The Trump team needs to up its act! The leaders of Defense, State, and their Korean counterparts should tell President Trump to get real.
Bernard Rowan is associate provost for contract administration and professor of political science at Chicago State University. He is a past fellow of the Korea Foundation and former visiting professor at Hanyang University. Reach him at browan10@yahoo.com
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In response to the promised if failed North Korean missile launch and hyperbolic rhetoric from Pyongyang, President Trump said he sent an "armada" of ships and submarines to Korea. It sounded like a direct facing down of Kim Jong-un's threats about military exercises, South Korea, and the United States. Kim and his minions often state everyone will die in a preemptive strike. Of late, the Korean government and the United States have repeated that attacks will meet with a firm response. Trump's aides speak of an end to the Obama era of "strategic patience" about North Korea. The purpose is firm resolve.
But, in fact, Trump had sent the ships to Australia! These assets may join current maneuvers soon, but this revelation undercut America's credibility. Despite denials by Press Secretary Sean Spicer, Trump looks foolish to stupid.
It's also dangerous. We should remember the South and the United States have begun military exercises that each year see the North scornfully threaten any provocations with overwhelming carnage in response, or other variants of this tune. We want them to believe we mean what we say about their threatened attacks.
We should remember the morass in Syria isn't over, and Trump has put Russia and Iran on alert about their responsibility. The Russians have taken to flying their nuclear-capable bombers over Alaska. Foreign Minister Lavrov proudly huddled with his Iranian and Syrian counterparts to declare the U.S. better not launch any more missiles into Syria. Putin said the same.
Trump pressed Xi Jinping to do more than just halt coal shipments to Pyongyang. I don't know if China's done more, but they've placed their army divisions and air force on high alert in case of any incident.
Robert Jervis wrote a classic text on the role of perceptions in foreign affairs, entitled Perception and Misperception in International Politics. It remains relevant as a guide to policy analysis and leadership. Misdirection has its uses. However, the heated declaration of a military move that didn't happen isn't a good tactic. It confuses military leaders, alienates friends and likely leaves foes laughing.
A half fake deployment also decreases the likelihood of an enemy believing other promises that matter. At this stage in the early months of Trump's presidency, all signs point to an absence of thorough organization at the top and a style of reactive rhetoric. The taste of the President for spouting responses lacking truth and turning them into public spectacle isn't leadership. He shouldn't run security relations on the model of his campaign.
Building pressure on the North becomes a goal for American policy. This stance has supporters, and it earns generally warm if cautious support from Korean and other quarters tired of unfruitful aid and diplomatic overtures to Pyongyang. However, it's important to remember that ratcheting up expectations on the heels of hot words and fools' misdirection reduces our power. The North's military means need sober statements and deterrent postures. The risks to South Korea are genuine.
Nothing about the Chinese military moves and statements signal they've warmed much to Trump's rhetoric. Perhaps more ameliorating actions will come, but the needed mutual accord between the two regional superpowers hasn't occurred. Too many interests remain to divide China and the United States. The problem transcends talk over chocolate cake at Mar-a-Lago.
The role of the United States in the security of Northeast Asia is real. It's developed over more than half a century. The lives and investments of Koreans and Americans, past and present, merit better leadership. The Trump team needs to up its act! The leaders of Defense, State, and their Korean counterparts should tell President Trump to get real.
Bernard Rowan is associate provost for contract administration and professor of political science at Chicago State University. He is a past fellow of the Korea Foundation and former visiting professor at Hanyang University. Reach him at browan10@yahoo.com
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