Inter-Korean arms race

By John Burton

The past month has seen an escalating inter-Korean arms race with both Koreas testing their most advanced military systems.

In mid-September, North Korea fired several solid-propellant ballistic missiles to test a new rail-based launch system that would make it more difficult to target and destroy them in a pre-emptive strike. This test followed the test of a new cruise missile.

Pyongyang then capped off its activity last week by claiming that it had launched a "hypersonic" missile, the latest status symbol among leading military powers, including Russia and China. The next-generation Hwasong-8 missile can reportedly fly over Mach 5, five times faster than the speed of sound, and is meant to overwhelm current missile defense systems.

While the Western media gave much attention to the North Korean missile tests as another example of Pyongyang's hostile intent, there was less overseas press coverage given to South Korea's test of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), matching North Korea's recent development of a similar weapon.

The SLBM test coincided with the launch of a new 3,000-ton SLBM submarine built by Daewoo Shipbuilding. The Navy also launched a new frigate equipped with improved anti-submarine torpedoes.

More advanced weaponry appears to be in Seoul's pipeline. There was official confirmation that it was developing its own cruise missile. The South Korean military plans to spend $1.3 billion next year on the development of defense technology, including conventional arms such as an advanced amphibious assault vehicle for the Marines.

The Korean Peninsula appears to be heading toward its own localized version of Mutual Assured Destruction, or MAD, policy that once governed U.S.-Soviet relations during the Cold War.

North Korea's expansion of its military arsenal reflects its quest for regime survival. Pyongyang believes that it is surrounded by hostile powers, including the U.S., South Korea and Japan. It is even suspicious about the future intentions of China, its erstwhile ally.

Pyongyang's recent muscle-flexing reflects its displeasure over joint U.S.-Korean military exercises this summer. It also sends a message to Washington to ease economic sanctions.

South Korea's military build-up is partly in response to the looming threat from the North. But it also reflects concerns about the future of its defense alliance with the U.S., which was sorely tested during the Trump administration, and fears that it may become embroiled in growing tensions between Beijing and Washington. Like Pyongyang, it worries about the growth of China's regional hegemony.

Although President Moon Jae-in may talk of conciliatory measures toward North Korea, such as calling for a formal end to the Korean War, he has also been pushing ahead with an ambitious modernization of the armed forces.

This direction reflects long-standing nationalist views among progressives that South Korea should reduce its defense dependence on the U.S. and forge an independent foreign policy.

It also has the added benefit of creating a robust local defense industry that could compete against the world's biggest arms suppliers, including the U.S., Russia and China. Seoul has publicly proclaimed that it aims eventually to become the world's fifth-largest arms producer.

Moon's defense plan is patterned after the one propagated by former President Roh Moo-hyun, under whom Moon served as chief of staff. Previously, South Korea's military structure was heavily tilted toward the army, whose troops would be expected to do much of the ground fighting in a second Korean War while the U.S. would provide air and naval support.

But Roh sought to introduce a more balanced structure among the army, navy and air force to make the country less dependent on U.S. military protection. Moon has increased defense spending for the navy and air force. The SLBM submarines are one example of efforts to create a "blue water" fleet able to operate in international seas. The share of defense spending in the national budget is now the biggest since the mid-1980s, when the military ruled the country.

Seoul is also developing the so-called "Kill Chain" defense system, which involves assembling a strike force of ballistic and cruise missiles, air power and commando units to destroy North Korea's nuclear arsenal.
From Pyongyang's perspective, Seoul appears to be laying the foundation for possible "decapitation strikes" to take out the North Korean leadership.

Although North Korea has a bigger military on paper, with more aircraft, tanks, artillery and warships than South Korea, most of these weapons are outdated and would be no match for Seoul's more modern armed forces. It is the main reason why Pyongyang wants to build up its nuclear force as a cost-effective way to reduce spending on large conventional forces.

This build-up is setting the stage for a classic action-reaction dynamic where breaking the cycle of rearmament on both sides will be difficult.

John Burton (johnburtonft@yahoo.com), a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is a Washington, D.C.-based journalist and consultant.