N. Korea - Winner or loser?

By John Burton

Could North Korea benefit from the COVID-19 crisis? The conventional view is that the virus poses a significant threat to North Korea's stability by weakening its economy and putting severe stress on its public health systems.

But if North Korea does succeed in becoming a "clean land" free of the virus, as it claims, it could strengthen the regime's argument to its people that the ideology of juche, or self-reliance, and an authoritarian government place it at an advantage in dealing with extraordinary threats. That system has already proved resilient in surviving other crises such as the famine of the 1990s ― although at the cost of least 600,000 lives.

Pyongyang might also reap more immediate benefits. The pandemic appears to have put on hold its confrontation with the U.S. over its nuclear weapon program as Washington turns its attention to addressing its growing virus crisis at home. In addition, the pandemic could lead to the erosion of the international sanctions regime against North Korea.

The big question is whether North Korea's rapid but draconian response to the virus threat will succeed after it closed its borders with China and elsewhere in late January. That drastic action was an implicit acknowledgment that the country was particularly vulnerable to the pandemic.

Pyongyang has not yet reported any cases of the virus in the country, but it confirmed that 7,000 people had initially been quarantined for medical monitoring, although most have since been released. These "super-special" measures have imposed an economic cost when the growth rate has already contracted in recent years due to the sanctions.

North Korea has taken sensible steps to contain an outbreak. It has banned mass gatherings and reportedly introduced lockdown measures for the military. The government has highlighted other actions, such as rapidly building a new hospital in Pyongyang this year, meant to show the public that it is taking medical matters seriously.

Although North Korea may lack advanced healthcare facilities, its frontline primary care system has enough doctors to address infectious diseases, with the recent elimination of measles. The biggest vulnerability lies in the lack of clean, running water and stable electricity in some clinics in rural areas and a shortage of protective medical gear.

The North Korean public has displayed a stoic response to previous crises. There was apparently little unrest during the 1990s famine and the disastrous 2009 currency reform. This bodes well for continued social stability.

In the meantime, North Korea could turn the pandemic to its advantage in its relations with the U.S, which have soured since the collapse of the Hanoi summit between Kim Jong-un and President Donald Trump a year ago. The U.S. no longer appears interested in pressuring Pyongyang for the time being as Trump grapples with the COVID-19 outbreak and a financial meltdown in the U.S.

Instead, Trump has suggested in a personal letter to Kim that he is willing to improve relations by offering North Korea medical assistance, although Pyongyang has not yet responded.

An added bonus for North Korea is that the U.S. postponed its annual military exercises with South Korea scheduled for this spring due to COVID-19. Since Pyongyang regards these exercises as a major provocation, their delay has reduced tensions in the short term.

The COVID-19 pandemic has also produced the first possible cracks in the sanctions regime against North Korea. U.N. leaders, including Antonio Guterres, the U.N. secretary-general, and Michelle Bachelet, the U.N. high commissioner for human rights, have called on the G-20 countries to ease international sanctions on North Korea because they are weakening global efforts to contain the spread of the virus.

This follows a similar proposal for sanctions relief by China and Russia in the U.N. Security Council last December. This effort has naturally been endorsed by Pyongyang, but even several senior U.S. Democrats are now urging the Trump administration to temporarily reduce sanctions to speed the delivery of humanitarian aid.

Although the U.N. Security Council is unlikely to act immediately on this appeal since it is not meeting due to COVID-19, these pleas might provide grounds for some countries, such as China and Russia, to test sanctions relief on their own.

Before it temporarily closed for business, the U.N. had accelerated approval of exemptions from its sanctions regime for several international humanitarian organizations to deliver medical aid to North Korea. U.N. sanctions introduced in late 2017 affected a range of goods, including any medical equipment made of metal, for which exemption approval must be sought.

If some sanctions are suspended, it could make it harder to reinstate them once the COVID-19 pandemic has passed. This would represent a setback for the U.S., which has relied heavily on sanctions as part of its maximum pressure campaign against North Korea.

John Burton (johnburtonft@yahoo.com), a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is a Washington, D.C.-based journalist and consultant.