Why Europe is engaging emerging powers, post-Ukraine

By Andrew Hammond

The unity of western powers since Russia's invasion of Ukraine has surprised many. However, that resolve has been undercut by a broader international non-alignment on this issue, led by emerging markets from India to Brazil.

With the Ukraine conflict now into its fourth month, Europe has belatedly acknowledged this challenge, and is significantly stepping up its engagement across the world to put pressure on Russia. It is Germany, as the host of this year's G7, which is leading the way.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz is having wide-ranging meetings with key emerging powers, including South Africa, Indonesia (the hosts of this year's G20) and India. All three have been invited to next month's G7 leadership summit alongside the forum of advanced major democratic countries.

With its wooing of world powers, Europe is seeking to address the fact that of the approximately 160-strong so-called Non-Aligned Movement of states, only one has imposed sanctions against Russia. For many countries in Africa, Asia, the Middle East and South America, such non-alignment has significant appeal, not least given that so many depend heavily on trade, aid, investment and/or weaponry from both Western powers and from China, if not also from Russia.

A good example is India; Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Europe this week with key stop-overs in Germany, France, plus Denmark, where he also engaged the prime ministers of other Nordic nations. Yet, Modi has refused to condemn Russia, calling instead again this week for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine, even as his European hosts hope that New Delhi might use its influence with Moscow to do more to end the war.

The EU, which is India's biggest trading partner, sees alignment on Ukraine as one of the key preconditions that may be needed to turbocharge ties. And a key prize here for both parties is a potential new trade deal.

Yet, the diplomatic tightrope that India is now on is shown by the fact that it abstained in a key U.N. vote condemning Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, while calling for an end to hostilities. It continues to use much Russian military hardware.

Plus it has also significantly increased imports of Russian oil since March, with Modi bristling at criticism of the move, saying Europe's consumption of Russian energy commodities remains far higher. Moreover, with Russia reeling under Western sanctions, some 50 Indian food, ceramics and chemical exporters will head to Moscow later this month.

While non-aligned South American states like Brazil are very important for Europe, it is Asia and Africa that are the two critical regions that EU states are seeking to reach out to. And in the massive Asia-Pacific geography, one interesting feature of engagement is potential changes in the relative balance of diplomatic prioritization for Europe, post-Ukraine.

It was no coincidence last week, for instance, that the destination for Scholz's first Asian trip was Japan, rather than emerging superpower China, which is Germany's top trade partner. As Berlin seeks closer ties with countries that share democratic values, the German chancellor made clear that it is important for all states to reject Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and also any attempts in Asia to move territorial boundaries by force.

Turning to Africa, building support for Europe's position on Ukraine is also becoming part of the EU's agenda in the continent with a population of 1.2 billion. Alongside European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, national leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron are key here.

Europe is already concerned about the influence that Russia, and also China, have in the region. Vladimir Putin hosted in 2019 the first-ever Russia-Africa summit seeking to restore Moscow's influence in the region that faded after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Putin is keen to entrench Russia's foothold in the continent with bilateral trade with Africa having risen significantly.

It is in this context that Africa has become an EU super-priority for a range of both political and economic reasons. Building upon the so-called "pivot to Africa" by her predecessor, Jean Claude Juncker, which saw a new Africa-Europe Alliance created, von der Leyen is promoting a relationship with the EU as a key counterweight in the continent to world powers such as Russia.

Brussels wants to encourage Africa as a champion of the EU's rules-based, multilateral approach to world order, including non-territorial aggression in nations such as Ukraine. In the words of EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell, what is sought is "a new, integrated strategy for and with Africa" that sees "equal partnership" rather than the "power politics" offered by some others.

Taken together, this is why Africa and Asia Pacific are the two leading emerging market theatres to promote the advanced major democratic countries' economic and geopolitical interests, including Ukraine. While many states there will remain non-aligned, one measure of success for the EU will be getting more of them in these regions to condemn, and potentially even launch sanctions against, Russia if the war continues.

Andrew Hammond is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.