Why Biden is doubling down on ties with Tokyo

By Andrew Hammond

While U.S. President Joe Biden is very heavily focused on the dangerous Russia stand-off in Ukraine, his attention on Friday was diverted by a welcome summit with new Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

At a time of growing tension with not just Moscow, but also Beijing, Kishida could be a pivotal foreign figure during Biden's presidency. The summit goals were therefore set to advance the two leaders' shared vision for a free and open Asia-Pacific, closer cooperation on combating the pandemic, addressing the climate crisis and partnering on new technologies to help rejuvenate the global economy post-pandemic.

The critical importance of the U.S.-Japan relationship for Biden was highlighted last year when then-Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga became the first world leader to meet face to face with him at the White House. That session highlighted the intensified Asia-Pacific foreign focus of the U.S. president, especially post-Afghanistan withdrawal, and during Friday's summit Biden accepted Kishida's invitation to visit Japan this spring in what will be the U.S. president's first visit to the region since he entered the White House.

Russia aside, where Japan pledged support for U.S. diplomacy to stave off a potential invasion of Ukraine, it is the vast Asia-Pacific geography which is the critical theater consuming much of Biden's time ― with China top-of-mind. The key item on the Biden-Kishida agenda was therefore Beijing and its growing assertiveness which both leaders perceive to be undermining their vision of a free and open regional landscape.

Take the example of the continuing tensions in the South China Sea where it is not just Japan and the United States, but also other countries such as Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam and Brunei that are in dispute with China in the waters through which some $5 trillion of ship-borne trade passes each year.

Yet Beijing was not the only focus in Friday's summit as Pyongyang is also causing new concerns following its recent missile tests. Kishida and Biden not only condemned these firings, which violate U.N. Security Council resolutions, but also reiterated their calls for the Korean Peninsula's denuclearization.

Several parts of Friday's Biden-Kishida discussion were particularly sensitive for China, including the disputed Senkaku Islands, an issue for the Japanese prime minister said his U.S. counterpart has pledged strong support for Tokyo. This potentially puts Washington on a collision course given that the uninhabited islands in the East China Sea are also claimed by Beijing.

Potentially even more incendiary, from China's perspective, is the possibility that Japan will increasingly wade into the question of Taiwan's security and its future as a democracy. Beijing claims sovereignty over Taipei which now counts Tokyo among its closest allies. Any future cross-strait conflict would impact Japan whose westernmost inhabited island of Yonaguni lies less than 70 miles off Taiwan's east coast, and Tokyo is planning to increase its troop presence there.

Collectively, this is a big bilateral agenda, underlining the growing closeness in Japan-U.S. ties. It is no coincidence here that Suga was not only the first world leader to meet Biden in 2021, but also his predecessor Shinzo Abe was first off the mark to see Donald Trump too in 2016.

In recent years, the key international relations goal of Kishida, Suga and Abe has been to fortify U.S.-Japan ties in the face of significant international uncertainty. Their charm offensive with Trump and Biden has paid dividends with both pointing to the bilateral relationship as a foundation stone of peace in Asia-Pacific, and Trump signing a U.S.-Japan economic agreement.

Beyond the security side of the relationship, Kishida also wants Biden to consider reversing Trump's decision to withhold U.S. participation in the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership. This is the trade and investment deal originally intended to lock Washington into deeper partnership with its allies in the region, including Japan.

It is plausible that Biden may eventually seek to bring the United States into this pact of 11 Asia-Pacific and Western Hemisphere nations which account for around 13 percent of global trade and a combined population of around 500 million. However, any such move would likely need to wait till the second half of his presidency given his super-priority focus right now on curbing rising inflation and the pandemic, plus the political unpopularity of international trade in some key U.S. states which he will be conscious of before November's mid-terms.

Taken together, this is why Friday's Biden-Kishida summit was so important. While the U.S. president's immediate foreign focus is Ukraine and Russia, he knows the bilateral relationship with Japan is one of the most pivotal in international relations today, and what is agreed between the two regarding China in particular will impact not just Asia-Pacific, but globally too in the decade to come.

Andrew Hammond (andrewkorea@outlook.com) is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.