Storm clouds threaten Hong Kong's once bright horizons

By John J. Metzler

How time flies. It's been 25 years since Hong Kong returned to Chinese control, a quarter-century since the prosperous British Crown Colony became a semi-autonomous part of the People's Republic of China, the world's largest dictatorship. Nonetheless, the small but feisty islands on the south China coast remained a prosperous and relatively free place, until recently.

When Britain formally departed in 1997, part of the exit agreement was a fifty year deal that Hong Kong would retain its political and economic freedoms. Hong Kong's way of life was guaranteed. Thus while becoming a Special Autonomous Region (SAR) of the People's Republic, the feisty island entrepot legally retained rights and freedoms not permitted on the Chinese mainland.

I vividly recall being in Hong Kong immediately following the July 1st handover from the United Kingdom to the People's Republic. The spectacular fireworks over Victoria Peak and the grand harbor signaled a new era joining what was described as a reformist and ascending China. The whiff of firework smoke was still in the air along with a nervous optimism that somehow all would go smoothly. This was Hong Kong after all, not authoritarian and corrupt Mainland China ― and the world was watching.

In 1997, Hong Kong was a pretty prosperous place compared to the Chinese motherland that was trying to bring it back into the fold. The adage of the "Golden Goose" economy became the currency of the day. Hong Kong is the goose that lays golden eggs, in other words, prosperity for China. Why then would China wish to kill the golden goose? This analogy makes a good point and was largely true until recently.

Hong Kong's Basic Law ensured the "One Country, Two Systems" principle, whereby the Crown Colony returned to Beijing's sovereignty, but in parallel, ensured a self-governing region where, for a 50-year period, freedoms and economic vitality would remain untouched by Beijing's heavy hand.

Chairman Xi Jinping's regime would change the template and narrative for a once largely successful city-state based on the rule of law, not on the rule by law.

But the storm clouds have been darkening. By 2014, Beijing considered the Sino-British Treaty to have no further legal effects. In 2020, China slapped Hong Kong with draconian national security legislation to pull the special administrative region into line with the rest of the People's Republic.

Chris Patten, Hong Kong's last British governor, lamented recently that Beijing's crackdown on Hong's Kong's civil liberties has "been a lot worse" than expected. "I thought there was a prospect China would keep its word, and I'm sorry that it hasn't," Patten said in London.

Beijing is strangling the proverbial golden goose. While Hong Kong's economy has remained largely free and highly competitive, both Beijing's political crackdowns in recent years and the "dynamic zero-COVID" policy pursued by the government there have begun to tarnish this once-thriving international business hub and its 7.6 million inhabitants.

Hong Kong's political deterioration has been startlingly quick. The human rights monitor, Freedom House, states, "The people of Hong Kong… traditionally enjoyed substantial civil liberties and the rule of law under their local constitution, the Basic Law." However, the enactment of the National Security Law in 2020 seriously undermined the 'one country, two systems' framework." The Chinese Communist Party now uses a new system of "patriots governing Hong Kong," as a way to vet and pick candidates in local elections.

Viewing a global list of competitors and benchmarks for political and civil rights, Hong Kong came in at 43 out of 100 and was listed as "Partly Free." As recently as 2017, Hong Kong ranked 61 out of 100 in the ratings. China, however, scored an abysmal 9 out of 100. Conversely, nearby democratic Taiwan ranks 94 out of 100.

Press freedoms have changed appallingly for the worse. Since China assumed control, there was a slow erosion of media freedoms. Now the press is encouraged to "be patriotic" and support the Beijing party line. While there was less direct censorship until recently, the Hong Kong media exercises wide self-censorship. Last year China's shut down the independent Apple Daily newspaper and arrested a number of journalists including its pro-democracy owner, Jimmy Lai.

The French media freedom barometer watchdog, Reporters Without Borders, cites Hong Kong's stark decline. During 2017, Hong Kong ranked 73 out of 180 countries; by 2021 it slipped to 80 out of 180, and by 2022, it crashed to 148 out of 180. China ranks 175 out of 180.

In 1997, many pundits argued that Hong Kong's freewheeling freedoms and rights would soon change China. Sadly, it turns out that China's communist system seems to have changed Hong Kong.

John J. Metzler (jjmcolumn@earthlink.net) is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He is the author of "Divided Dynamism ― The Diplomacy of Separated Nations: Germany, Korea, China."