By Lee Seong-hyon
Since the Korean geopolitical roller-coaster got into full swing with looming double summits (inter-Korean and North Korea-U.S.), China doesn't want to be a bystander. Is Xi Jinping also thinking about seeing Kim Jong-un? Especially now that Xi has just completed the busy "housekeeping" of his alignment of power for his second term?
Locked and loaded, the U.S. is displaying the willing appearance of marching into a trade war with China. When Washington tries to corner Beijing, China can choose to use the "North Korea card." Geopolitics and economics are like a family; they are connected.
True, the relationship between North Korea and China has become estranged in recent years, and interviews with relevant interlocutors reveal it. Interviews, however, also show that the duo's relationship, surprisingly, isn't as bad as outsiders commonly would assume.
It should not be missed that both Xi and Kim tried to find the "right" momentum for improving bilateral ties that would lead to a summit. Sometimes it was the North Korean side that was more eager to field a summit; sometimes it was the Chinese side.
For example, in 2013, when the relationship between North Korea and China experienced a downturn with the removal of the powerful pro-China politician Jang Song-thaek, the Chinese rejected the North's proposal for a summit. In 2015, China actively reached out to North Korea for such a possibility.
First, during Kim's birthday in January that year, Xi sent a congratulatory message to Kim to ignite a friendly mojo. In March of the same year, when asked about the possibility of a summit, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that the Chinese and North Korean leaders would meet "at a convenient" time for both sides (yao kan shuangfang fangbian). The expression "when convenient" is a familiar expression that China uses in favor of a summit. It was also the expression Xi himself used in his invitation to Kim.
China's standing condition for a summit with Kim has been that North Korea should first express a sign of a "forward-looking posture" on the denuclearization issue. Xi could use this as a "justification" for a meeting with Kim, who has been widely criticized by the international community for his nuclear ambitions.
North Korea repeatedly declared that it would not consider nuclear abandonment at all. Thus, this was the primary obstacle for the summit. The key question is whether, this time, the situation is different? If so, China can proceed with the summit, theoretically speaking.
This time, Kim Jong-un for the first time signaled his commitment to abandon the country's nuclear weapons program. "He has given his word," Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha told U.S. broadcaster CBS.
Kim has been in the top leader's position since the end of 2011. He has never visited overseas or met other countries' heads of the state. The media has paid great attention to who would be the first foreign leader to meet with the reclusive Kim. Meeting him would be a "rare event" the whole world will pay attention to. Mongolia and Russia had pushed for this "privilege," but without luck.
When analyzing the Sino-North Korean relationship intrigue, one comes to find a very interesting feature. Even though the duo often plays the game of a "jilted lover" or "marriage dispute" of who didn't respect whom, in the overall bilateral dynamics, it is often (surprisingly) China that desires a summit more than North Korea does. Under this circumstance, if the North actively "courts" China, they may hold a summit. In fact, Kim has just offered his congratulations to Xi upon his re-election as president, the North's state media said, in a rare direct message from Pyongyang to Beijing after ties nosedived.
So, is it a "convenient time" for Xi to meet Kim? The answer is, Yes. When will they meet? We don't know. But probably before the Trump-Kim summit. Why? China wants to preemptively register its interest with North Korea ahead of the Washington-Pyongyang summit. China doesn't want to enter the stage when the show is over. China also wants to be in a position to "guide" Washington and secure its political leverage with Washington as well. So, when will the Xi-Kim meeting take place? If the past is any guide, there were many cases where the summit was held "abruptly."
Lee Seong-hyon (sunnybbsfs@gmail.com), Ph.D., is a research fellow at the Sejong Institute.
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Locked and loaded, the U.S. is displaying the willing appearance of marching into a trade war with China. When Washington tries to corner Beijing, China can choose to use the "North Korea card." Geopolitics and economics are like a family; they are connected.
True, the relationship between North Korea and China has become estranged in recent years, and interviews with relevant interlocutors reveal it. Interviews, however, also show that the duo's relationship, surprisingly, isn't as bad as outsiders commonly would assume.
It should not be missed that both Xi and Kim tried to find the "right" momentum for improving bilateral ties that would lead to a summit. Sometimes it was the North Korean side that was more eager to field a summit; sometimes it was the Chinese side.
For example, in 2013, when the relationship between North Korea and China experienced a downturn with the removal of the powerful pro-China politician Jang Song-thaek, the Chinese rejected the North's proposal for a summit. In 2015, China actively reached out to North Korea for such a possibility.
First, during Kim's birthday in January that year, Xi sent a congratulatory message to Kim to ignite a friendly mojo. In March of the same year, when asked about the possibility of a summit, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that the Chinese and North Korean leaders would meet "at a convenient" time for both sides (yao kan shuangfang fangbian). The expression "when convenient" is a familiar expression that China uses in favor of a summit. It was also the expression Xi himself used in his invitation to Kim.
China's standing condition for a summit with Kim has been that North Korea should first express a sign of a "forward-looking posture" on the denuclearization issue. Xi could use this as a "justification" for a meeting with Kim, who has been widely criticized by the international community for his nuclear ambitions.
North Korea repeatedly declared that it would not consider nuclear abandonment at all. Thus, this was the primary obstacle for the summit. The key question is whether, this time, the situation is different? If so, China can proceed with the summit, theoretically speaking.
This time, Kim Jong-un for the first time signaled his commitment to abandon the country's nuclear weapons program. "He has given his word," Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha told U.S. broadcaster CBS.
Kim has been in the top leader's position since the end of 2011. He has never visited overseas or met other countries' heads of the state. The media has paid great attention to who would be the first foreign leader to meet with the reclusive Kim. Meeting him would be a "rare event" the whole world will pay attention to. Mongolia and Russia had pushed for this "privilege," but without luck.
When analyzing the Sino-North Korean relationship intrigue, one comes to find a very interesting feature. Even though the duo often plays the game of a "jilted lover" or "marriage dispute" of who didn't respect whom, in the overall bilateral dynamics, it is often (surprisingly) China that desires a summit more than North Korea does. Under this circumstance, if the North actively "courts" China, they may hold a summit. In fact, Kim has just offered his congratulations to Xi upon his re-election as president, the North's state media said, in a rare direct message from Pyongyang to Beijing after ties nosedived.
So, is it a "convenient time" for Xi to meet Kim? The answer is, Yes. When will they meet? We don't know. But probably before the Trump-Kim summit. Why? China wants to preemptively register its interest with North Korea ahead of the Washington-Pyongyang summit. China doesn't want to enter the stage when the show is over. China also wants to be in a position to "guide" Washington and secure its political leverage with Washington as well. So, when will the Xi-Kim meeting take place? If the past is any guide, there were many cases where the summit was held "abruptly."
Lee Seong-hyon (sunnybbsfs@gmail.com), Ph.D., is a research fellow at the Sejong Institute.
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