By Lee Seong-hyon
The U.S.-China relationship in 2018 will face turbulence. China, whose power has been rising for the past 40 years, had been using slogans such as "tao guang yang hui" (to hide ambitions and disguise claws) and "heping jueqi" (peaceful rise) to avoid the appearance of challenging the United States. Xi Jinping is the first Chinese leader since Deng Xiaoping to modify the strategy.
The new version of China's foreign policy under Xi's "new era" (xin shidai) is "fen fa you wei" (striving for achievement). South Korea is likely to be more entrapped into a deepening Sino-U.S. rivalry in 2018. A way to offset it is to improve inter-Korean relations.
The long-standing strategic position of the United States in East Asia is expected to face a major challenge in 2018. China will continue to move toward a long-term goal of becoming a regional hegemon by replacing the U.S. The U.S., however, is unlikely to be able to respond adequately to China's challenge due to President Donald Trump's contradictions in his East Asia policy, his faltering domestic political support and his incompatibility with America's allies, not to mention his mistrust of the U.S. government's primary diplomatic agency, the State Department.
The Trump administration just released its National Security Strategy (NSS). It called China a "revisionist" country, a "rival" state, a strategic "competitor." This reflects the belated realization on the part of the U.S. in squaring with China's meteoric rise that is now seen as undermining the U.S.-led global order. It is also, frankly, an acknowledgement of U.S. misjudgment of China. For the past 40 years, the U.S. government had dealt with China with an assumption that increasing trade would lead to more openness in China, the gradual relaxation of the Chinese Communist Party's control over China's economy and the development of democracy in China. That did not happen. Republican lawmaker Dana Rohrabacher recalled this strategy and said the U.S. policy toward China was "stupid." He characterized America's strategic misperception of China by saying: "We created a monster."
However, an important question is whether Trump has the will to implement what he says in the NSS and whether the U.S. government has the resources to counter China.
Xi isn't likely to sit around either. China's foreign policy in 2018 is set to become more assertive, confident and even messianic. In his three-hour, 23-minute speech at the recent party congress, Xi preached to the Communist Party deputies to "strive with endless energy toward national rejuvenation." The state Global Times said China will seek "global sway" in 2018, citing foreign minister Wang Yi. There is an increasing mass psyche in China that a conflict with the U.S. is a "growing pain" and is unavoidable in the course of its emergence as a great nation.
In 2018, Northeast Asia is likely to become a battleground for influence and hegemony between America that wants to be "great again" and China that wants "great rejuvenation" of its power. The U.S.-China competition has now entered a "structural" relationship, which feature is "here to stay" for the coming decade. The North Korean nuclear crisis will be more challenging than ever, as there is room for indirect and even direct clashes on the Korean Peninsula.
Against this backdrop, South Korea doesn't seem to have handy viable strategic cards available to deal with the formidable challenges. It will be an imperative task for South Korea to secure its own interests in this very volatile and fluid geopolitical situation.
In a circumstance like this, there is one thing that South Korea should do and must do. That is, to improve inter-Korean relations. Korea should have less trouble inwardly to better deal with troubles outside. What South Korea can and must do foremost is to secure greater initiative on the Korean Peninsula by improving inter-Korean ties. This includes expanding its economic leverage over the North by implementing the "New Korean Peninsula Economic Map."
In addition, the Moon Jae-in government should also link the "map" to China's "Belt and Road Initiative" (BRI) to offset the asymmetric influence of China over Korea. China could use a middle-power partner like South Korea to successfully implement the multi-nation project.
Finally, it should not be forgotten that the "South Korea-U.S. alliance" is the largest political leverage that Seoul has for China, from the Chinese perspective. Therefore, China will make the utmost effort to pressure Seoul to weaken the alliance.
Lee Seong-hyon (sunnybbsfs@gmail.com), Ph.D., is a research fellow at the Sejong Institute.
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The new version of China's foreign policy under Xi's "new era" (xin shidai) is "fen fa you wei" (striving for achievement). South Korea is likely to be more entrapped into a deepening Sino-U.S. rivalry in 2018. A way to offset it is to improve inter-Korean relations.
The long-standing strategic position of the United States in East Asia is expected to face a major challenge in 2018. China will continue to move toward a long-term goal of becoming a regional hegemon by replacing the U.S. The U.S., however, is unlikely to be able to respond adequately to China's challenge due to President Donald Trump's contradictions in his East Asia policy, his faltering domestic political support and his incompatibility with America's allies, not to mention his mistrust of the U.S. government's primary diplomatic agency, the State Department.
The Trump administration just released its National Security Strategy (NSS). It called China a "revisionist" country, a "rival" state, a strategic "competitor." This reflects the belated realization on the part of the U.S. in squaring with China's meteoric rise that is now seen as undermining the U.S.-led global order. It is also, frankly, an acknowledgement of U.S. misjudgment of China. For the past 40 years, the U.S. government had dealt with China with an assumption that increasing trade would lead to more openness in China, the gradual relaxation of the Chinese Communist Party's control over China's economy and the development of democracy in China. That did not happen. Republican lawmaker Dana Rohrabacher recalled this strategy and said the U.S. policy toward China was "stupid." He characterized America's strategic misperception of China by saying: "We created a monster."
However, an important question is whether Trump has the will to implement what he says in the NSS and whether the U.S. government has the resources to counter China.
Xi isn't likely to sit around either. China's foreign policy in 2018 is set to become more assertive, confident and even messianic. In his three-hour, 23-minute speech at the recent party congress, Xi preached to the Communist Party deputies to "strive with endless energy toward national rejuvenation." The state Global Times said China will seek "global sway" in 2018, citing foreign minister Wang Yi. There is an increasing mass psyche in China that a conflict with the U.S. is a "growing pain" and is unavoidable in the course of its emergence as a great nation.
In 2018, Northeast Asia is likely to become a battleground for influence and hegemony between America that wants to be "great again" and China that wants "great rejuvenation" of its power. The U.S.-China competition has now entered a "structural" relationship, which feature is "here to stay" for the coming decade. The North Korean nuclear crisis will be more challenging than ever, as there is room for indirect and even direct clashes on the Korean Peninsula.
Against this backdrop, South Korea doesn't seem to have handy viable strategic cards available to deal with the formidable challenges. It will be an imperative task for South Korea to secure its own interests in this very volatile and fluid geopolitical situation.
In a circumstance like this, there is one thing that South Korea should do and must do. That is, to improve inter-Korean relations. Korea should have less trouble inwardly to better deal with troubles outside. What South Korea can and must do foremost is to secure greater initiative on the Korean Peninsula by improving inter-Korean ties. This includes expanding its economic leverage over the North by implementing the "New Korean Peninsula Economic Map."
In addition, the Moon Jae-in government should also link the "map" to China's "Belt and Road Initiative" (BRI) to offset the asymmetric influence of China over Korea. China could use a middle-power partner like South Korea to successfully implement the multi-nation project.
Finally, it should not be forgotten that the "South Korea-U.S. alliance" is the largest political leverage that Seoul has for China, from the Chinese perspective. Therefore, China will make the utmost effort to pressure Seoul to weaken the alliance.
Lee Seong-hyon (sunnybbsfs@gmail.com), Ph.D., is a research fellow at the Sejong Institute.
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