Johnson's exit may be messy for UK Conservative Party

By Andrew Hammond

Boris Johnson resigned as Conservative leader last Wednesday, but the ruling party's troubles are far from over.

For while Conservative MPs are largely of the view that it is right for Johnson to go, they and the wider party are very divided as to who his successor should be.

There is likely to be a big philosophical debate within the party in the coming weeks, including about whether it needs to move back more toward a Thatcherite-style "low tax, small state" approach after the big spending, interventionist alternative of Johnson.

Early polling indicates that there is no overwhelming front-runner, but an early outlier may be Defense Secretary Ben Wallace (who has not yet confirmed he will stand) who currently leads polls of Conservative Party members.

The Conservatives, however, have a recent track record of not ultimately picking the early frontrunner as leader. Two of the last three Conservative Party leaders (David Cameron in 2005, and Theresa May in 2016) were not the obvious favorites at the start of their leadership elections, but emerged during the contest as the clear winners.

The candidates to replace Johnson will have wide-ranging policy ideas, but the single key task for his replacement will be stabilizing the economy, and ending the months-long paralysis in government with a clear domestic and foreign policy post-Brexit vision for the country in the 2020s as it emerges (hopefully) from the pandemic.

For the next few weeks, Johnson said major policy, including fiscal decisions, will be left for the next prime minister.

The field of candidates seeking the party leadership, and thus prime ministership when Johnson vacates that post too in coming weeks, will be large.

Already announced candidates include Attorney General Suella Braverman and Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Tom Tugendhat, but many more will join these ranks, including possibly Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, former Education Secretary Nadim Zahawi, Trade Minister Penny Mordaunt, and Wallace.

Other potential contenders include former Health Secretary Sajid Javid and ex-Chancellor Rishi Sunak whose resignations on Tuesday precipitated Johnson's downfall. Both Sunak and Javid could find it easier to make the case they would be change candidates, restoring standards in public life post-Johnson, than those who have stuck with the prime minister right to the end.

Until one or two clear favorites to replace Johnson emerge, the potential policy implications of the upcoming leadership change are unclear. The winner is not likely to be finalized till September, or possibly even October, although a more truncated process is being looked into.

While Johnson hoped to be in power for more than a decade after his big election victory in 2019, he has in fact served a short term of around three years. This puts his length around the same as Theresa May from 2016 to 2019, and just a little longer than Neville Chamberlain, the much criticized leader who served from 1937 to 1940 immediately before Winston Churchill's first term.

In one of his final big acts Thursday as prime minister, Johnson formally blocked a new independence referendum in Scotland which is being pushed by the devolved administration in power in Edinburgh.

The U.K. Supreme Court is now expected to rule in the coming months whether such a referendum can go ahead potentially as soon as October 2023, and this is another key development to watch out for which could significantly impact the U.K.'s political stability.

While assessments of Johnson's prime ministership will be left to historians, it is already clear is that while Johnson may be one of the best campaigners in U.K. politics, with an ability to cut through to the electorate with simple slogans such as "Get Brexit Done," his ability to govern is much weaker. And his period of office reflects this, including the lax managerial discipline that enabled recent scandals to happen.

The reason for this dichotomy is his skill set. For much of the last two years of the coronavirus crisis, his approach to tackling the crisis has been chaotic and incoherent reflecting the fact that his style is "big picture" and not details-focused, while his flamboyance is less suited to the demands of the pandemic era than previous times.

It is not just domestic, but also international reaction, to Johnson's resignation that has been mixed. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has expressed concern that the next U.K. prime minister may not be as robust in his/her response to Russia's aggression.

Yet, other key partners such as U.S. President Joe Biden has been more muted given the concerns that the White House has over Johnson's policies in areas like renegotiating the post-Brexit Northern Ireland protocol which is widely seen to break international law.

Taken together, this is why Johnson's controversial political legacy is likely to be disputed for years. While he achieved historic accomplishments, including Brexit, the nation is left more divided rather than united by his controversial premiership.

Andrew Hammond (andrewkorea@outlook.com) is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.