Korea's dead-end birthrate

By John Burton

Probably the biggest challenge that Korea will face over the coming decades will be its demographic crisis, with a super-low birthrate and rapidly aging population.

Analysts warn that Korea's shrinking population could have serious implications for the economy and national security. It will mean fewer workers to staff companies and fewer soldiers to guard the frontlines, while taking care of the elderly will become more expensive.

Korea is now the Asian leader when it comes to low fertility rates, amounting to 0.8 percent of the population in 2020. This is less than in China, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore.

The main reason that the birthrate has cratered is that raising a family is expensive. The high cost of housing is forcing young couples to delay having children. The average Korean needs to spend nearly 17 years of their income to buy a home, much more than in other advanced Asian economies. On top of that comes expensive schooling in the form of private tutoring so that kids can get into the best universities and then the best jobs.

Is there a way to break this vicious cycle? One solution being touted is to raise the number of female workers, particularly in well-paying jobs. This proposal is based on what has happened in the Nordic region, which has reversed falling birthrates since the 1980s as an increase in working women in professional positions led families to have more children.

The simple explanation for this is that the greater household income contributed by women made having children more affordable. In contrast, women with low incomes often delay having children. The resulting argument is that Korea should increase the female labor force participation rate, which is now slightly more than half of all workers, and give women better-paying jobs.

However, having lived for long periods in both Sweden and Korea, I am skeptical that this Nordic model is applicable to Korea without other major changes in Korean society.

Start with the issue of gender equality. Women in the Nordic region ― Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland and Iceland ― have long enjoyed civil liberties that give them the same equal social standing as men.

Contrast that with Korea's patriarchal system that gives preference to males over females. Korea now ranks 117th out of 134 countries in terms of gender parity, according to the World Economic Forum. Few Korean women have leadership positions in business or politics.

The Nordic region's extensive social welfare programs have encouraged a healthy balance between work and family, which has contributed to higher birthrates. There is an extensive network of childcare facilities and generous parental paid leave for both mothers and fathers, which promotes gender equality in the process.

It is difficult to imagine a similar system in Korea. Social welfare programs are underdeveloped compared to the Nordic region. Few companies offer childcare services. In a country where workers are even afraid to take their full holiday quota because it stigmatizes them in the eyes of bosses as slackers, taking more than a year off to look after your own children might be seen as the height of folly.

As a result, the burden of child raising in Korea falls on women and explains why most cannot pursue professional careers and are often stuck with low-paying and irregular jobs. They are forced to drop out of the labor force during what should be the prime years of their working lives and only then return to marginal jobs once their children reach their teens.

The fact that out-of-wedlock births are common in the Nordic region adds to labor flexibility. Around 55 percent of births in Sweden are outside of marriage. In Korea, it is around 2 percent. The result is that marriage and birth are closely linked in Korea. As more and more young Koreans delay getting married for a variety of reasons, it also means postponing pregnancies. A more liberal attitude on marriages promotes child-bearing in Sweden. It is difficult to see Korea, with its strong Confucian influence and the emphasis on the family, adopting similar attitudes soon.

It appears obvious that the first step that any Korean government should take in increasing the birthrate is to provide affordable childcare, which will help ensure that more women remain in the labor force. Companies could also do their part by creating more flexible work environments to promote better work-life balance and diversity.

Nevertheless, none of these changes are likely to happen soon. Instead, we are seeing a growing backlash against the rise of women in corporate roles. Young male university graduates fear that they could lose out on acquiring coveted jobs to a new generation of well-educated women. It was his stoking of such fears that got Yoon Seok-yeol elected as president, winning 60 percent of the votes of young men.

John Burton (johnburtonft@yahoo.com), a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is a Washington, D.C.-based journalist and consultant.