Why World Population Day matters

By Andrew Hammond

As the U.K. government finalizes plans for the forthcoming COP 26 climate summit, this Sunday's World Population Day will underline how much demographic issues have risen on the political radar in recent years, especially on the sustainability front.

In part, this is driven by the fact that many countries, especially in the developing world, are seeking to redefine what sustainability means with their economic and population growth. This is helping drive the continued rise of the world's population from around 7.7 billion today, to potentially 10 billion in 30 years.

Yet this growth will not be distributed uniformly. According to the U.N., more than half of it will be concentrated in nine countries, mainly in the developing world, but also including the United States, while more than 50 countries or areas are expected to see population declines, including potentially China.

Overall, growing populations are also driving another mega trend too: urbanization. In 1800, less than three percent of the population lived in cities, yet by the end of 2008, this had risen to more than 50 percent, and there were 26 mega-cities (cities of 10 million or more inhabitants), and that proportion is expected to increase to 68 percent by 2050.

Despite the economic success of mega-cities, governments are preparing for the growing risks that these massive urban centers pose. Key questions to be addressed include whether it will be possible to continually meet the everyday needs of food, water and health, and also deal with the growing vulnerability of large urban areas to environmental stresses exacerbated by the effects of climate change.

There is already cause for some concern, as shown by the heat wave earlier this month which saw temperatures reaching 20 degrees higher than normal in parts of the Northwestern United States and Southwestern Canada. Portland, a typically cool, wet U.S. city, reached 46.6 degrees Celsius which was hot enough to see highways buckling and power cables bursting.

This highlights the key issue of preparedness. One reason other heat waves, such as the 2003 one in Paris, were so devastating is because both the public and authorities were unprepared for dealing with such extreme weather conditions, which were exacerbated by building practices, especially the lack of air-conditioning.

The main risk for riverine mega-cities on coastal plains is their increasing vulnerability to rising sea levels and river flooding. There will be further episodes such as the one in New Orleans in 2005 when it was hit by Hurricane Katrina, without adequate protection or flood warning systems.

In at-risk countries such as the Netherlands, researchers are preparing for these types of problems. This includes state-of-the-art early warning and monitoring systems, including for the effects of subsidence, to protect coastal communities.

The larger the urban area, the greater the damage that natural hazards can inflict, and increasingly it may be impossible to protect life and property even if there is a good warning system. As major hurricanes have shown in cities such as Houston, despite the known dangers from combined hazards such as winds and floods, there is now sometimes insufficient time to evacuate some cities safely, even highly developed ones.

So there is a pressing need for cities to develop emergency refuge areas which in some cases may already exist, but in most cases will need to be built from scratch. Thus, engineers and planners are considering how to identify and design such emergency centers, whether outside or within buildings, and how these should be connected to the wider urban system, including transportation.

Training populations to use the centers effectively is also essential. Emergency energy supplies for communities, which are essential for medical emergencies, need to improve in the future too, including by using advanced solar power.

Because of the failures to deal with some recent hazards impacting on mega-cities, governments are planning for multiple challenges and developing strategies for managing the range of environmental factors that could emerge. Several cities are also experimenting with air quality hazard indicators based on complex system models to appraise citizens about how the environment in their cities varies hourly and over the longer term.

What these models need is improved availability of relevant environmental and socio-economic data. Here, international agencies such as the World Meteorological Organization, as well as governments, need to collaborate more and make maximum use of digital technology and communications.

This will better enable data showing how people experience both rapidly occurring hazards such as tornadoes and slower ― but still deadly ― phenomena such as loss of crops from rising sea levels and salt penetration.

Fortunately, mega-cities have a global organization for information exchange and collaboration called C40 Cities. The future agenda here includes enhanced inter-city cooperation on policies for dealing with hazards, and putting more pressure on governments to assist, especially with finance and data, plus strategic priorities.

Andrew Hammond (andrewkorea@outlook.com) is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.