By Andrew Hammond
Geneva is home to the European seat of the United Nations and the international headquarters of the Red Cross, yet its unofficial status as the world's "peace capital" did little Wednesday to cut the diplomatic ice in Joe Biden's big summit with Vladimir Putin.
To be sure, Biden described the talks as "positive," and Putin "constructive." Moreover, the two sides not only unexpectedly released a joint statement, but also agreed to return ambassadors after they were withdrawn earlier this year.
However, little substantive progress was made on broader pressing issues including: climate change, Moscow's military involvement in Ukraine, and the jailing of Russian dissident Alexei Navalny. Indeed, despite the diplomatic language from the Biden team, U.S. concerns about Russia's behavior are only growing at the moment, with organizations linked to Navalny outlawed by a Moscow court for being "extremist".
This builds from U.S. concern with Russia's recent escalation at the Ukraine border in a major show of force. Former Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak has warned that Moscow could intervene to help its citizens in eastern Ukraine as tensions rise in the region which has been a flashpoint since Russian-sympathizing separatists seized swathes of territory there in 2014.
This has worried some in the West, and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Steve Pfifer asserted a few weeks ago that the situation is "one step from war." To this end, the U.S. put its forces in Europe on a higher level of alert with Biden re-affirming his support for Ukraine's "sovereignty and territorial integrity."
Biden is also still seething from recent major foreign cyber-hacks by Russia. A key U.S. intelligence report released in January highlighted that up to 10 U.S. government bodies, such as the U.S. Treasury, had their data potentially severely compromised. Organizations outside of government were also affected, with work still ongoing to understand the scope of the incident.
The outlook for Washington's relations with Moscow therefore appears poor in the immediate term. Russia was one of the last major countries to acknowledge Biden's election victory last year, and Putin has previously expressed no great hopes for an improved relationship. In April, the Russian president accused Western powers of trying to "pick on" Moscow and warned them not to cross any "red lines".
So the best that appears possible for the foreseeable future is both sides aiming for, in the U.S. president's words, a more "stable and predictable relationship." Yet, Biden has not completely ruled out a more constructive relationship in the medium term and stressed again Wednesday that he is not "looking for conflict."
He was, after all, one of the architects of the attempted U.S. re-set of relations with Moscow in the Obama era when key achievements included the U.S.-Russia civilian nuclear cooperation agreement, and Washington is interested in a longer-term extension of the New Strategic Arms Reduction agreement.
There may be some common agendas here, but also some real challenges to cooperation. And if the going gets tough, Putin (68 years old compared to Biden's 78) may already be thinking ahead to the next U.S. president, or even two, hoping for another maverick Donald Trump-type figure more congenial to his interests.
This, despite the fact that the four years of Trump's administration were a deep disappointment for Moscow, after the initial hints of a rapprochement and calls to "fully restore" ties. This agenda was stalled by the accusations of the Trump team's collusion with Russia, a charge not completely refuted by the Mueller report.
However, a much wider range of issues clouded the bilateral agenda too. This included disagreements on issues from Iran to Syria and arms control deals, including the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty from which the Trump team began withdrawing in response to alleged Russian violations.
Going forward, one of the key uncertainties over U.S.-Russia relations that Biden wants to probe is the degree to which Moscow's much warmer ties with Beijing are now set in stone under Putin and Xi Jinping. Perhaps the most cited area of their closer collaboration is on the political and security front. However, there is also an extensive economic dialogue which has grown since Moscow's annexation of Crimea.
This underscores the clear limits on the degree to which any warming of U.S.-Russia ties might occur during Biden's presidency. Not only may relations be significantly constrained in the immediate term, there are also wider constraints on the scope of any significant future rapprochement for as long as Moscow's relationship with Beijing remains so close.
Andrew Hammond (andrewkorea@outlook.com) is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.
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To be sure, Biden described the talks as "positive," and Putin "constructive." Moreover, the two sides not only unexpectedly released a joint statement, but also agreed to return ambassadors after they were withdrawn earlier this year.
However, little substantive progress was made on broader pressing issues including: climate change, Moscow's military involvement in Ukraine, and the jailing of Russian dissident Alexei Navalny. Indeed, despite the diplomatic language from the Biden team, U.S. concerns about Russia's behavior are only growing at the moment, with organizations linked to Navalny outlawed by a Moscow court for being "extremist".
This builds from U.S. concern with Russia's recent escalation at the Ukraine border in a major show of force. Former Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak has warned that Moscow could intervene to help its citizens in eastern Ukraine as tensions rise in the region which has been a flashpoint since Russian-sympathizing separatists seized swathes of territory there in 2014.
This has worried some in the West, and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Steve Pfifer asserted a few weeks ago that the situation is "one step from war." To this end, the U.S. put its forces in Europe on a higher level of alert with Biden re-affirming his support for Ukraine's "sovereignty and territorial integrity."
Biden is also still seething from recent major foreign cyber-hacks by Russia. A key U.S. intelligence report released in January highlighted that up to 10 U.S. government bodies, such as the U.S. Treasury, had their data potentially severely compromised. Organizations outside of government were also affected, with work still ongoing to understand the scope of the incident.
The outlook for Washington's relations with Moscow therefore appears poor in the immediate term. Russia was one of the last major countries to acknowledge Biden's election victory last year, and Putin has previously expressed no great hopes for an improved relationship. In April, the Russian president accused Western powers of trying to "pick on" Moscow and warned them not to cross any "red lines".
So the best that appears possible for the foreseeable future is both sides aiming for, in the U.S. president's words, a more "stable and predictable relationship." Yet, Biden has not completely ruled out a more constructive relationship in the medium term and stressed again Wednesday that he is not "looking for conflict."
He was, after all, one of the architects of the attempted U.S. re-set of relations with Moscow in the Obama era when key achievements included the U.S.-Russia civilian nuclear cooperation agreement, and Washington is interested in a longer-term extension of the New Strategic Arms Reduction agreement.
There may be some common agendas here, but also some real challenges to cooperation. And if the going gets tough, Putin (68 years old compared to Biden's 78) may already be thinking ahead to the next U.S. president, or even two, hoping for another maverick Donald Trump-type figure more congenial to his interests.
This, despite the fact that the four years of Trump's administration were a deep disappointment for Moscow, after the initial hints of a rapprochement and calls to "fully restore" ties. This agenda was stalled by the accusations of the Trump team's collusion with Russia, a charge not completely refuted by the Mueller report.
However, a much wider range of issues clouded the bilateral agenda too. This included disagreements on issues from Iran to Syria and arms control deals, including the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty from which the Trump team began withdrawing in response to alleged Russian violations.
Going forward, one of the key uncertainties over U.S.-Russia relations that Biden wants to probe is the degree to which Moscow's much warmer ties with Beijing are now set in stone under Putin and Xi Jinping. Perhaps the most cited area of their closer collaboration is on the political and security front. However, there is also an extensive economic dialogue which has grown since Moscow's annexation of Crimea.
This underscores the clear limits on the degree to which any warming of U.S.-Russia ties might occur during Biden's presidency. Not only may relations be significantly constrained in the immediate term, there are also wider constraints on the scope of any significant future rapprochement for as long as Moscow's relationship with Beijing remains so close.
Andrew Hammond (andrewkorea@outlook.com) is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.
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