By Lee Seong-hyon
Chinese leader Xi Jinping reportedly said he would willingly bless a trilateral peace declaration to end the Korean War. If true, that would signify that Beijing has made a concession to help break the current North Korea-U.S. stalemate in denuclearization talks.
According to media reports, Xi, speaking at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Sept. 12, signaled that China would be willing to accept a trilateral declaration to officially end the war, participated in by the two Koreas and the United States ― apparently, without including China.
"Currently, the parties are North Korea, South Korea and the United States. There is a Chinese saying, 'Let he who tied the bell on the tiger take it off.' They should continue to make efforts. We also need to assist them," Xi was quoted as saying by Radio Free Asia's Chinese language edition.
The Chinese foreign ministry website didn't include Xi's remarks ― and its state media did not report on it.
A formal declaration to end the Korean War, demanded by North Korea, has been a thorny stumbling block in negotiations between Pyongyang and Washington, aimed at ending North Korea's nuclear weapons program. What makes the negotiations even more complicated is the so-called "China factor." China is seen as the country that wields the largest influence on North Korea, something China denies. How the "China factor" influences the U.S.-North Korean negotiations has drawn keen attention.
Trump has already openly complained, at least three times, that "China was behind" North Korea's defiant attitude that led to the negotiations being stalled. China has also been demanding to be included as a party to formally end the Korean War; although the report seems to indicate a change in its position.
Xi's full remarks were not available. However, even with this limitation, it's unlikely that Xi meant what the media alleged. Rather, Xi seemed to underscore the consistent Chinese position that the United States and the two Koreas should be primarily responsible for resolving the Korean conflict, not China.
Contrary to media reports, in fact China recently proposed a "four-party" declaration to Washington to end the war, with its inclusion.
There is apprehension in Washington in looking at China's role, including the peace declaration. The U.S. reluctance has to do with its broader and fundamental strategy in the region, namely, the presence of its troops.
Washington fears that a declaration ending the war would invite Pyongyang and Beijing to demand the withdrawal of these troops from the peninsula. After all, Washington has been justifying its deployment of troops on the grounds of North Korean threats. Therefore, if the North Korean threat is lifted, and if a formal peace declaration is made, then the U.S. will face a cardinal question: Why does it still have troops on the Korean Peninsula when there is "peace" there? This is the American dilemma. Washington will be also asked to justify its military alliance with Seoul.
Pyongyang has sent an important signal. Kim Jong-un clarified to South Korean officials earlier this month that "declaring an end to the Korean War had nothing to do with the U.S.-South Korean alliance or U.S. troops in South Korea," according to Chung Eui-yong, the presidential national security adviser.
China's position has been more adamant in demanding the withdrawal of American troops. But there are some emerging signs that this time-old position may be shifting. And this is worth looking at.
To facilitate the current deadlock of what is widely touted as the "meeting of the century," China may be also shifting its position to accept the presence of American troops on the peninsula. First, China feels that its modernized PLA is now strong enough to face American troops in South Korea, a "mere" 30,000 of them. Second, China recently rediscovered the virtue of American troops in the region in restraining Japan's militarization. Third, China's change of heart is also seen partly motivated by its sense that if the Trump-Kim deal derails, there may not be another chance for a long time to come, due to hardening domestic conditions in the United States. Fourth, there is also a powerful sense of urgency to help to prop up Kim in his ability to maintain the domestic narrative for rationalizing denuclearization when he has been getting little from Washington in return. There are rudimentary signals from China in this regard, but Washington and Seoul should definitely talk to Beijing about this critical matter at this critical juncture.
Lee Seong-hyon (sunnybbsfs@gmail.com), Ph.D., is the Director, Center for Chinese Studies; and also the Director, Department of Unification Strategy at Sejong Institute.
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According to media reports, Xi, speaking at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Sept. 12, signaled that China would be willing to accept a trilateral declaration to officially end the war, participated in by the two Koreas and the United States ― apparently, without including China.
"Currently, the parties are North Korea, South Korea and the United States. There is a Chinese saying, 'Let he who tied the bell on the tiger take it off.' They should continue to make efforts. We also need to assist them," Xi was quoted as saying by Radio Free Asia's Chinese language edition.
The Chinese foreign ministry website didn't include Xi's remarks ― and its state media did not report on it.
A formal declaration to end the Korean War, demanded by North Korea, has been a thorny stumbling block in negotiations between Pyongyang and Washington, aimed at ending North Korea's nuclear weapons program. What makes the negotiations even more complicated is the so-called "China factor." China is seen as the country that wields the largest influence on North Korea, something China denies. How the "China factor" influences the U.S.-North Korean negotiations has drawn keen attention.
Trump has already openly complained, at least three times, that "China was behind" North Korea's defiant attitude that led to the negotiations being stalled. China has also been demanding to be included as a party to formally end the Korean War; although the report seems to indicate a change in its position.
Xi's full remarks were not available. However, even with this limitation, it's unlikely that Xi meant what the media alleged. Rather, Xi seemed to underscore the consistent Chinese position that the United States and the two Koreas should be primarily responsible for resolving the Korean conflict, not China.
Contrary to media reports, in fact China recently proposed a "four-party" declaration to Washington to end the war, with its inclusion.
There is apprehension in Washington in looking at China's role, including the peace declaration. The U.S. reluctance has to do with its broader and fundamental strategy in the region, namely, the presence of its troops.
Washington fears that a declaration ending the war would invite Pyongyang and Beijing to demand the withdrawal of these troops from the peninsula. After all, Washington has been justifying its deployment of troops on the grounds of North Korean threats. Therefore, if the North Korean threat is lifted, and if a formal peace declaration is made, then the U.S. will face a cardinal question: Why does it still have troops on the Korean Peninsula when there is "peace" there? This is the American dilemma. Washington will be also asked to justify its military alliance with Seoul.
Pyongyang has sent an important signal. Kim Jong-un clarified to South Korean officials earlier this month that "declaring an end to the Korean War had nothing to do with the U.S.-South Korean alliance or U.S. troops in South Korea," according to Chung Eui-yong, the presidential national security adviser.
China's position has been more adamant in demanding the withdrawal of American troops. But there are some emerging signs that this time-old position may be shifting. And this is worth looking at.
To facilitate the current deadlock of what is widely touted as the "meeting of the century," China may be also shifting its position to accept the presence of American troops on the peninsula. First, China feels that its modernized PLA is now strong enough to face American troops in South Korea, a "mere" 30,000 of them. Second, China recently rediscovered the virtue of American troops in the region in restraining Japan's militarization. Third, China's change of heart is also seen partly motivated by its sense that if the Trump-Kim deal derails, there may not be another chance for a long time to come, due to hardening domestic conditions in the United States. Fourth, there is also a powerful sense of urgency to help to prop up Kim in his ability to maintain the domestic narrative for rationalizing denuclearization when he has been getting little from Washington in return. There are rudimentary signals from China in this regard, but Washington and Seoul should definitely talk to Beijing about this critical matter at this critical juncture.
Lee Seong-hyon (sunnybbsfs@gmail.com), Ph.D., is the Director, Center for Chinese Studies; and also the Director, Department of Unification Strategy at Sejong Institute.
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