By Ahn Ho-young
The standard North Korean tactic toward South Korea and the United States is the so-called "Tong-mi-bong-nam" strategy, which is roughly translated as "engage the U.S. and block South Korea." In rare and exceptional circumstances, North Korea shifts that tactic and tries the reverse strategy of "Tong-nam-bong-mi."
For the past several weeks, North Korea has played this tactic. On Sept. 24, North Korea welcomed President Moon Jae-in's U.N. proposal for an "end of war declaration." Within a day, North Korea made a follow-up statement suggesting that positive actions on the part of South Korea could lead to the restoration of the South-North liaison office and even another inter-Korean summit.
Several days later, North Korea agreed to reconnect communication hotlines connecting the two Koreas. But the North continued to ignore continued U.S. offers for dialogue, alleging that they are not genuine and lack sincerity.
As exceptional as "Tong-Nam-Bong-Mi" is, it is creating widely different responses in South Korea. Some North Korea observers cannot hide their excitement and are urging the South Korean government to take all the necessary measures to make the best of the offer, while warning the U.S. that it must not stand in the way of the two Koreas' peace-making efforts.
Others disregard it as an all-too-familiar tactic of North Korea, aimed at undermining the combined defense capabilities of South Korea and the U.S. and timed at the upcoming presidential election in South Korea. I wish to share some of my thoughts.
First, we must not confuse tactic with strategy. The strategy of North Korea, as reaffirmed through the North's amendment of the charter of the ruling Workers' Party at the eighth party congress in January this year, is to unify the whole Korean peninsula under the banner of communism, taking advantage of its military capability enhanced through the development of weapons of mass destruction.
The current "Tong-nam-bong-mi" proposals accordingly come with several conditions. One is that South Korea and the U.S. must stop practicing double standards against North Korea. Pyongyang alleges that its development of weapons of mass destruction is in fact aimed at strengthening national security. Thus, it is a double standard that South Korea and the U.S. condemn North Korea for the same efforts that the two countries themselves make.
Another condition contained in North Korea's proposal is that South Korea and the U.S. must stop hostile actions against the North, meaning that joint military exercises held by the two allies must be renounced and the deployment of U.S. military assets for nuclear deterrence must be stopped.
These two conditions, put together, will effectively clear the way for North Korea to implement and complete its strategy. These are clearly excessive demands that even progressive newspapers in the South condemn as North Korea's "double standard."
Second, North Korea's diplomatic overture must not divert our attention from the real issue, which is the accelerated actions North Korea is taking to further enhance its nuclear and missile capability.
There are increasing signs that North Korea is now heavily engaged in accelerating the production of plutonium and weapons-grade enriched uranium. Listen to Rafael Mariano Grossi, a director- general at the International Atomic Energy Agency, who says that North Korea is currently going "full steam ahead" with its nuclear activities.
During the same period of North Korea's "Tong-nam-nong-mi" tactic, Pyongyang conducted no less than five tests of both cruise and ballistic missiles. Most ominously, the North's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) announced Sept. 29 that it succeeded in the first test of a Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (HGV) weapon system which has been developed so far by only three countries ― Russia, China and the U.S.
HGVs fly faster than Mach 5 and at an altitude of up to 30 kilometers. Chang Young-keun, a renowned rocket scientist who has followed North Korea's missile technology for the past 10 years, says that HGVs cannot be countered with any anti-missile systems currently deployed on and around South Korea. On top of it, KCNA announced Oct. 20 that North Korea had successfully launched a submarine-launched ballistic missile from underwater.
Third, North Korea has shown surprising consistency in pursuing its strategy and equally surprising stubbornness in developing nuclear and missile technology. Unless we are equally consistent and equally stubborn, there is no way that we can defend ourselves against the asymmetric threats arising from North Korea's nuclear weapons and missiles.
President Joe Biden, in his first address to Congress on April 28, had this to say with respect to the threats arising from the nuclear developments of North Korea and Iran: "We will be working closely with our allies to address the threats posed by both of these countries through diplomacy and stern deterrence."
Given the serious and worsening threats we face in our national security, we must be consistently and stubbornly focused on how to further strengthen deterrence against these threats. North Korea's "Tong-nam-bong-mi" tactic must not divert our attention from such efforts.
Ahn Ho-young (hyahn78@mofa.or.kr) is president of the University of North Korean Studies. He served as Korean ambassador to the United States and first vice foreign minister.
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For the past several weeks, North Korea has played this tactic. On Sept. 24, North Korea welcomed President Moon Jae-in's U.N. proposal for an "end of war declaration." Within a day, North Korea made a follow-up statement suggesting that positive actions on the part of South Korea could lead to the restoration of the South-North liaison office and even another inter-Korean summit.
Several days later, North Korea agreed to reconnect communication hotlines connecting the two Koreas. But the North continued to ignore continued U.S. offers for dialogue, alleging that they are not genuine and lack sincerity.
As exceptional as "Tong-Nam-Bong-Mi" is, it is creating widely different responses in South Korea. Some North Korea observers cannot hide their excitement and are urging the South Korean government to take all the necessary measures to make the best of the offer, while warning the U.S. that it must not stand in the way of the two Koreas' peace-making efforts.
Others disregard it as an all-too-familiar tactic of North Korea, aimed at undermining the combined defense capabilities of South Korea and the U.S. and timed at the upcoming presidential election in South Korea. I wish to share some of my thoughts.
First, we must not confuse tactic with strategy. The strategy of North Korea, as reaffirmed through the North's amendment of the charter of the ruling Workers' Party at the eighth party congress in January this year, is to unify the whole Korean peninsula under the banner of communism, taking advantage of its military capability enhanced through the development of weapons of mass destruction.
The current "Tong-nam-bong-mi" proposals accordingly come with several conditions. One is that South Korea and the U.S. must stop practicing double standards against North Korea. Pyongyang alleges that its development of weapons of mass destruction is in fact aimed at strengthening national security. Thus, it is a double standard that South Korea and the U.S. condemn North Korea for the same efforts that the two countries themselves make.
Another condition contained in North Korea's proposal is that South Korea and the U.S. must stop hostile actions against the North, meaning that joint military exercises held by the two allies must be renounced and the deployment of U.S. military assets for nuclear deterrence must be stopped.
These two conditions, put together, will effectively clear the way for North Korea to implement and complete its strategy. These are clearly excessive demands that even progressive newspapers in the South condemn as North Korea's "double standard."
Second, North Korea's diplomatic overture must not divert our attention from the real issue, which is the accelerated actions North Korea is taking to further enhance its nuclear and missile capability.
There are increasing signs that North Korea is now heavily engaged in accelerating the production of plutonium and weapons-grade enriched uranium. Listen to Rafael Mariano Grossi, a director- general at the International Atomic Energy Agency, who says that North Korea is currently going "full steam ahead" with its nuclear activities.
During the same period of North Korea's "Tong-nam-nong-mi" tactic, Pyongyang conducted no less than five tests of both cruise and ballistic missiles. Most ominously, the North's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) announced Sept. 29 that it succeeded in the first test of a Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (HGV) weapon system which has been developed so far by only three countries ― Russia, China and the U.S.
HGVs fly faster than Mach 5 and at an altitude of up to 30 kilometers. Chang Young-keun, a renowned rocket scientist who has followed North Korea's missile technology for the past 10 years, says that HGVs cannot be countered with any anti-missile systems currently deployed on and around South Korea. On top of it, KCNA announced Oct. 20 that North Korea had successfully launched a submarine-launched ballistic missile from underwater.
Third, North Korea has shown surprising consistency in pursuing its strategy and equally surprising stubbornness in developing nuclear and missile technology. Unless we are equally consistent and equally stubborn, there is no way that we can defend ourselves against the asymmetric threats arising from North Korea's nuclear weapons and missiles.
President Joe Biden, in his first address to Congress on April 28, had this to say with respect to the threats arising from the nuclear developments of North Korea and Iran: "We will be working closely with our allies to address the threats posed by both of these countries through diplomacy and stern deterrence."
Given the serious and worsening threats we face in our national security, we must be consistently and stubbornly focused on how to further strengthen deterrence against these threats. North Korea's "Tong-nam-bong-mi" tactic must not divert our attention from such efforts.
Ahn Ho-young (hyahn78@mofa.or.kr) is president of the University of North Korean Studies. He served as Korean ambassador to the United States and first vice foreign minister.
