By Lee Seong-hyon
Last year, many South Korean security experts pointed out the two geopolitical hot spots, the South China Sea and Taiwan, as having the largest potential to ignite a military conflagration. This year, they ― without hesitation ― point to Taiwan as their first choice, while sparingly mentioning the South China Sea.
The fact that China escalated its latest military tensions with Taiwan ― right before the Zurich meeting between the White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan and senior Chinese foreign policy adviser Yang Jiechi ― and deescalated them after the meeting, indicates that, for China, the Taiwan issue is part of its larger strategy in dealing with the United States.
China dispatched a record number of warplanes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone in a show of force. In recent weeks, there have been increasing tensions near the Taiwan Strait, with both China and the U.S. conducting more conspicuous military drills than ever. Yet, the uncommonly large-scale Chinese military prowess, is seen by some analysts as China displaying its resolve over Taiwan, ahead of a summit between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping. Zurich was the venue where the U.S. and China agreed to hold the summit before the year's end.
The expected summit, the first since Biden was inaugurated, is expected to be consequential, even though it may not be fruitful. The Taiwan issue will be a top item on the agenda. Beijing's show of force, however, is being seen as a warning of non-compromise to whatever Washington might attempt to do to strengthen its ties with Taiwan, in the coming weeks and months.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping has, on numerous occasions, emphasized unification with Taiwan. Unification with Taiwan is also part of Xi's avowed "Chinese Dream" (zhongguo meng) mandate.
The question increasingly debated in Washington now is whether Xi will unleash China's military means against Taiwan to accomplish this goal. Given all the military maneuvers Beijing has been showing, this prospect is a legitimate question. Besides, Xi himself has not excluded a military option either.
If an outside observer also inclines towards the possibility of China resorting to kinetic means against Taiwan, then that person may also wonder about the timing of such an attack against Taiwan.
First of all, it's highly unlikely for Beijing to attack Taiwan before the expected summit between Xi and Biden. That would be a diplomatic disaster. It's also unlikely before February of next year when China will hold its Winter Olympics. That would draw international outcry, not to mention, a boycott of the Beijing-hosted event.
Deep into the latter part of the year 2022, it's also unlikely for Xi Jinping to mount an attack on Taiwan before the 20th Communist Party Congress, either in October or November, which is expected to be a grand moment to announce Xi's transition into a supreme third term of leadership.
Next year also marks important anniversaries for China to have normalized diplomatic relations with its two neighbor countries ―- its 30th with South Korea, and its 50th with Japan. Throughout next year, China will hold many cultural events and forums with Seoul and Tokyo. The three countries are also expected to promote people-to-people exchanges and mutual understanding and friendship. It doesn't look like a good year to invade Taiwan.
So, Taiwan has breathing time. Taiwan and the U.S. should sit down with each other and engage in the most candid and frank conversation they have ever had. This dialogue will include the very sensitive question of whether the U.S. will (really) send troops to protect Taiwan in case there is a war in the Taiwan Strait.
Don't leave this sensitive question in the strategic rabbit hole. The world doesn't have to know. But Taiwan should know the answer to this question, because if anything happens in the future, it will be the Taiwanese people first and foremost that are affected.
The current U.S. standard answer to this question is "strategic ambiguity." A day after his meeting with China's top diplomat, Yang Jiechi, in Zurich, Sullivan, the White House national security advisor, was pressed by a BBC journalist on whether the U.S. is prepared to take military action to defend Taiwan.
Sullivan said, "Let me just say this, we are going to take action now to try to prevent that day from ever coming to pass." That's a smart diplomatic answer, but not very comforting for Taiwan.
Lee Seong-hyon, Ph.D. (sunnybbsfs@gmail.com), is a visiting scholar at Harvard University's Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies. He is the former director of the Center for Chinese Studies at the Sejong Institute.
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The fact that China escalated its latest military tensions with Taiwan ― right before the Zurich meeting between the White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan and senior Chinese foreign policy adviser Yang Jiechi ― and deescalated them after the meeting, indicates that, for China, the Taiwan issue is part of its larger strategy in dealing with the United States.
China dispatched a record number of warplanes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone in a show of force. In recent weeks, there have been increasing tensions near the Taiwan Strait, with both China and the U.S. conducting more conspicuous military drills than ever. Yet, the uncommonly large-scale Chinese military prowess, is seen by some analysts as China displaying its resolve over Taiwan, ahead of a summit between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping. Zurich was the venue where the U.S. and China agreed to hold the summit before the year's end.
The expected summit, the first since Biden was inaugurated, is expected to be consequential, even though it may not be fruitful. The Taiwan issue will be a top item on the agenda. Beijing's show of force, however, is being seen as a warning of non-compromise to whatever Washington might attempt to do to strengthen its ties with Taiwan, in the coming weeks and months.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping has, on numerous occasions, emphasized unification with Taiwan. Unification with Taiwan is also part of Xi's avowed "Chinese Dream" (zhongguo meng) mandate.
The question increasingly debated in Washington now is whether Xi will unleash China's military means against Taiwan to accomplish this goal. Given all the military maneuvers Beijing has been showing, this prospect is a legitimate question. Besides, Xi himself has not excluded a military option either.
If an outside observer also inclines towards the possibility of China resorting to kinetic means against Taiwan, then that person may also wonder about the timing of such an attack against Taiwan.
First of all, it's highly unlikely for Beijing to attack Taiwan before the expected summit between Xi and Biden. That would be a diplomatic disaster. It's also unlikely before February of next year when China will hold its Winter Olympics. That would draw international outcry, not to mention, a boycott of the Beijing-hosted event.
Deep into the latter part of the year 2022, it's also unlikely for Xi Jinping to mount an attack on Taiwan before the 20th Communist Party Congress, either in October or November, which is expected to be a grand moment to announce Xi's transition into a supreme third term of leadership.
Next year also marks important anniversaries for China to have normalized diplomatic relations with its two neighbor countries ―- its 30th with South Korea, and its 50th with Japan. Throughout next year, China will hold many cultural events and forums with Seoul and Tokyo. The three countries are also expected to promote people-to-people exchanges and mutual understanding and friendship. It doesn't look like a good year to invade Taiwan.
So, Taiwan has breathing time. Taiwan and the U.S. should sit down with each other and engage in the most candid and frank conversation they have ever had. This dialogue will include the very sensitive question of whether the U.S. will (really) send troops to protect Taiwan in case there is a war in the Taiwan Strait.
Don't leave this sensitive question in the strategic rabbit hole. The world doesn't have to know. But Taiwan should know the answer to this question, because if anything happens in the future, it will be the Taiwanese people first and foremost that are affected.
The current U.S. standard answer to this question is "strategic ambiguity." A day after his meeting with China's top diplomat, Yang Jiechi, in Zurich, Sullivan, the White House national security advisor, was pressed by a BBC journalist on whether the U.S. is prepared to take military action to defend Taiwan.
Sullivan said, "Let me just say this, we are going to take action now to try to prevent that day from ever coming to pass." That's a smart diplomatic answer, but not very comforting for Taiwan.
Lee Seong-hyon, Ph.D. (sunnybbsfs@gmail.com), is a visiting scholar at Harvard University's Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies. He is the former director of the Center for Chinese Studies at the Sejong Institute.
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