S. Korea in the middle of power struggle among US, China, Russia
By Kim Jae-kyoung
The geopolitical balance in Northeast Asia is undergoing a gradual transition.
The shift is being driven by a mixture of two forces ― U.S. President Donald Trump's America First strategy and the revival of one-man rule in Russia and China.
The re-election of Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping is fanning worries of another Cold War in Asia as conflict is growing between the U.S. and the two countries.
"Geopolitics in Northeast Asia is a story of shifting power," James Bindenagel, the Henry Kissinger professor for Governance and International Security at the Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-University, Bonn, said in an interview.
He said that Putin's reelection and China's elimination of term limits for Xi "are important challenges to the existing international order that promoted globalization and was based on American leadership for international stability."
From Bindenagel's perspective, Trump's first year in office has seen the withdrawal of the U.S. from that leadership role in Northeast Asia.
"Although the U.S. remains a pre-eminent military power and has maintained its security alliances in Asia, China and Russia have demonstrated increased power projection," he said.
"Globally, Russia in Ukraine and Syria, and China in its One Belt, One Road Initiative have acted as great powers."
His views come as Putin recently won a fourth term, setting the stage for another six years in power after having already ruled Russia for almost two decades.
Putin's victory followed the re-election of Xi and a constitutional amendment to remove term limits allowing the latter to stay in power indefinitely.
Bindenagel, the former U.S. ambassador to Germany, pointed out that in this shifting power landscape Washington has yet to establish "balance of power policies" among the three leading contenders in the emerging multi-polar order.
According to his observation, China seeks not to have chaos or America on its border, while Russia is planning a new bridge to North Korea as a gesture to have a stake for itself in perhaps renewed six-party talks.
The career U.S. diplomat, who served in South Korea from 1975 to 1977, said that the power shift has complicated the situation surrounding the Korean Peninsula leaving "South Korea caught in the middle of these competing powers."
He expects that Seoul will take this power shift in its calculations for an inter-Korean meeting, while Pyongyang, sitting on the vortex of power, has engaged each great power and won some advantages.
The Bonn-based international security expert said that the U.S. should accept that the Kim regime will not give up its nuclear weapons, and commit not to seek regime change, while remaining committed to a nuclear-free North Korea.
"A strong Kim Jung-un feels nuclear weapons empower him, although they are not useful in conducting and winning a military campaign that would instead result in the total destruction of his country," he said.
He believes that ironically, coordination among the three powers is a must for finding a breakthrough in the North Korean nuclear crisis.
"China should support easing of tensions on the peninsula with its diplomacy and continued sanctions, but not demand the withdrawal of U.S. forces in South Korea or the region," he said.
He explained that the role of U.S. forces in the region is to act as a deterrent against North Korean aggression, not to march to the Yalu as was done in the Korean War.
"Quite the contrary, through a return to six-power talks Kim could understand that American role in regional stability and accept U.S. military exercises in the future," he said.
He forecast that Kim's easing of tensions would weigh on the decisions on the level and frequency of alliance military maneuvers.
"The key in that evaluation would depend on North Korean behavior toward South Korea," he said.
Bindenagel said that the U.S., now with John Bolton advising Trump, will seek confrontation with Kim Jung-un, even with a prospective meeting between the two.
"Such is the context for the prospective summit with Kim Jung-un. Breakthroughs should not be expected," he said.
He stressed that talk of negotiations for a peace treaty comes only after North Korea accepts detente with South Korea.
"A peace treaty is a long term goal that would first take years to establish working relations between the two Koreas, China, Japan the U.S. and Russia," he said.
"Peace on the peninsula is, or certainly should be after all, the underlying goal for all parties."
By Kim Jae-kyoung
 |
| James Bindenagel |
The shift is being driven by a mixture of two forces ― U.S. President Donald Trump's America First strategy and the revival of one-man rule in Russia and China.
The re-election of Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping is fanning worries of another Cold War in Asia as conflict is growing between the U.S. and the two countries.
"Geopolitics in Northeast Asia is a story of shifting power," James Bindenagel, the Henry Kissinger professor for Governance and International Security at the Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-University, Bonn, said in an interview.
He said that Putin's reelection and China's elimination of term limits for Xi "are important challenges to the existing international order that promoted globalization and was based on American leadership for international stability."
From Bindenagel's perspective, Trump's first year in office has seen the withdrawal of the U.S. from that leadership role in Northeast Asia.
"Although the U.S. remains a pre-eminent military power and has maintained its security alliances in Asia, China and Russia have demonstrated increased power projection," he said.
"Globally, Russia in Ukraine and Syria, and China in its One Belt, One Road Initiative have acted as great powers."
His views come as Putin recently won a fourth term, setting the stage for another six years in power after having already ruled Russia for almost two decades.
Putin's victory followed the re-election of Xi and a constitutional amendment to remove term limits allowing the latter to stay in power indefinitely.
Bindenagel, the former U.S. ambassador to Germany, pointed out that in this shifting power landscape Washington has yet to establish "balance of power policies" among the three leading contenders in the emerging multi-polar order.
According to his observation, China seeks not to have chaos or America on its border, while Russia is planning a new bridge to North Korea as a gesture to have a stake for itself in perhaps renewed six-party talks.
The career U.S. diplomat, who served in South Korea from 1975 to 1977, said that the power shift has complicated the situation surrounding the Korean Peninsula leaving "South Korea caught in the middle of these competing powers."
He expects that Seoul will take this power shift in its calculations for an inter-Korean meeting, while Pyongyang, sitting on the vortex of power, has engaged each great power and won some advantages.
The Bonn-based international security expert said that the U.S. should accept that the Kim regime will not give up its nuclear weapons, and commit not to seek regime change, while remaining committed to a nuclear-free North Korea.
"A strong Kim Jung-un feels nuclear weapons empower him, although they are not useful in conducting and winning a military campaign that would instead result in the total destruction of his country," he said.
He believes that ironically, coordination among the three powers is a must for finding a breakthrough in the North Korean nuclear crisis.
"China should support easing of tensions on the peninsula with its diplomacy and continued sanctions, but not demand the withdrawal of U.S. forces in South Korea or the region," he said.
He explained that the role of U.S. forces in the region is to act as a deterrent against North Korean aggression, not to march to the Yalu as was done in the Korean War.
"Quite the contrary, through a return to six-power talks Kim could understand that American role in regional stability and accept U.S. military exercises in the future," he said.
He forecast that Kim's easing of tensions would weigh on the decisions on the level and frequency of alliance military maneuvers.
"The key in that evaluation would depend on North Korean behavior toward South Korea," he said.
Bindenagel said that the U.S., now with John Bolton advising Trump, will seek confrontation with Kim Jung-un, even with a prospective meeting between the two.
"Such is the context for the prospective summit with Kim Jung-un. Breakthroughs should not be expected," he said.
He stressed that talk of negotiations for a peace treaty comes only after North Korea accepts detente with South Korea.
"A peace treaty is a long term goal that would first take years to establish working relations between the two Koreas, China, Japan the U.S. and Russia," he said.
"Peace on the peninsula is, or certainly should be after all, the underlying goal for all parties."
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