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| Former National Security Adviser Kim Sung-han / Newsis |
Security experts express concern about possibility of Trump's return to White House
By Jung Min-ho
President Yoon Suk Yeol surprised the world earlier this year by mentioning the possibility of South Korea developing its own nuclear weapons in response to growing nuclear threats from the North.
However, given the potentially destructive consequences to its economy and alliances, Seoul later came up with an alternative ― launching the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) with Washington to strengthen the U.S.' extended deterrence commitment to defending South Korea with all of its military capabilities, including nuclear weapons.
Yet many of the more than 30 security and defense experts gathered at a seminar on the South Korea-U.S. alliance in eastern Seoul, Wednesday, expressed skepticism and concerns about the sustainability of the NCG, a policy agreement that could be overturned if Joe Biden loses the election next year.
In a clear reference to Donald Trump, a Republican contender who has a significant, perhaps insurmountable, lead in polls, former National Security Adviser Kim Sung-han warned that Seoul may not have much time left to take advantage of the NCG, saying the government should make the most out of the opportunity.
"There are presidential contenders promoting 'America Firsterism' and downplaying (the value of the) alliance," Kim said at the event organized by Chey Institute for Advanced Studies, a think tank.
"Next year's election would determine the U.S. direction between maintaining its importance on alliance and regressing into isolation … We should regard the next year and a half (before the election) as a 'golden time.'"
During that period, he said the government should develop the NCG into a more sustainable system while learning every detail about the operation of the U.S. nuclear arsenal. "Otherwise, after some photo sessions," he added, the opportunity could be wasted with nothing to show.
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| Donald Trump, former president and the favorite to win the Republican nomination for the 2024 presidential election, greets supporters as he arrives at New Orleans International Airport in New Orleans, Tuesday. AP-Yonhap |
Many scholars and think tank analysts there said the Washington Declaration, a diplomatic deal that gave rise to the NCG, was the Yoon administration's achievement to be reckoned with. But they said it should be the beginning ― not the end goal ― of the allies' deterrence efforts against Pyongyang's evolving threats.
"It was the right placement of the stepping stone in the right direction," said Cheon Seong-whun, former chief of the Korea Institute for National Unification, a think tank. "North Korea forced us to realize that we had been stuck in the pre-nuclear mentality. We should change our thoughts, attitudes and perspectives as the nuclear era requires."
Some of the experts also said Seoul should not rule out the possibility of developing its own nuclear weapons. Amid swift geopolitical changes, relying almost entirely on the U.S. for its defense is too naive and risky, they said.
Cheong Seong-chang, an analyst on North Korea at the Sejong Institute, is one of those supportive of the idea.
"We should ponder whether it would be appropriate to rely on the U.S. (for security), which holds a presidential election every four years," he said. "It might take five, 10 or 20 years to develop the weapons. But we should have a long-term plan for that objective."
He added that if developing nuclear weapons is too costly, South Korea should first aim for the capabilities of producing them quickly by securing the required materials and technologies, as Japan did in the past.
Recent polls show that Trump is the huge favorite to win the Republican nomination for the 2024 presidential election. Experts on U.S. politics at the event said they believe Biden has a better chance of winning.
But if Trump wins, they worry his presidency could be even more damaging to the alliance than his first term from 2017 to 2021. According to the memoir of former Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, pulling U.S. forces out of South Korea was one of his plans for his second term.
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