North Korea's threats bring South Korea, Japan closer despite old grudges

This photo shows a South Korean KDX-111 destroyer (front), a U.S. Arleigh Burke-class destroyer (center) and a Japanese Atago-class destroyer during joint maritime missile defense drills in the waters off South Korea's eastern coast, Wednesday. North Korea's evolving threats have brought South Korea and Japan closer despite their historical grievances. Courtesy of Defense Ministry

Seoul-Washington-Tokyo security cooperation expands amid new Cold War climate

By Jung Min-ho

After North Korea test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile off its eastern coast on Feb. 18, cameras installed in Japan captured the images of the projectile's last seconds before it fell into the sea. Based on those pictures, released by Japan's Ministry of Defense and NHK, analysts in South Korea made their assessments of how successful the test was.

This demonstrated what Tokyo can do to help Seoul understand the risks posed by the regime ― and what it could do more of if the two had better relations. Although the two nations share many common interests, such as countering the North's aggressions, a mix of historical grievances and fresh disputes have kept their relationship from moving forward despite a push by the U.S.

Yet their relationship has changed under President Yoon Suk Yeol, who has been actively seeking to strengthen security cooperation with Japan, a country he has called a "partner." On Wednesday, along with the U.S., the two Asian neighbors conducted combined drills involving Japan's Atago-class guided-missile destroyer in the waters off South Korea's eastern coast. It was their third such exercise in six months.

Some experts say the administration's policy direction is sensible. The level of North Korea's nuclear and missile threats today are far beyond what South Korea can cope with alone, Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University, said at a forum organized by the Sejong Institute, a Korean think tank, in Seoul, earlier that day.

"Over the past few years, North Korea has been trying to diversify the methods of attacking with nuclear weapons by testing a train station or a reservoir as its missile launch platforms and investing to develop a solid-fuel missile engine. All this already requires a huge cost just for detection," Park said.

From left, South Korea's Fleet Commander Vice Adm. Kim Myung-soo, U.S. Seventh Fleet Commander Vice Adm. Karl Thomas and Japan's Self-Defense Fleet Commander Vice Adm. Akira Saito pose as they meet aboard the USS Blue Ridge at the U.S. Seventh Fleet in Yokosuka, Japan, Wednesday. Courtesy of Republic of Korea Navy

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Japan, a country that has one of the world's best naval reconnaissance capabilities with over 100 P-3C aircraft, can help counter some of North Korea's threats, especially tracking the submarines capable of firing ballistic missiles, he said. Moreover, some of the most powerful U.S. strategic assets are based in Japan, from where they would be deployed to South Korea in the case of an armed conflict on the peninsula.

Park believes Seoul's security cooperation with Tokyo should be understood within a bigger picture of integrated deterrence ― the U.S. strategy of employing its vast network of allies around the world to counter their common threats.

Rejecting cooperation with Japan, a key component of the U.S. strategy, could be construed as the rejection of it altogether and puts Korea at risk of being less protected by the network at a time when North Korea is strengthening its ties with China and Russia, he added.

"The era in which South Korea could gain more by maintaining a balance between the U.S. and China is over," Park said. "The U.S., Japan and many other countries will strengthen that network ― with or without South Korea. If we do not want any direct military intervention of Japan in the case of a conflict on the peninsula, we should say so … If we simply ignore it, we might face a more difficult choice later between joining the network, for which we did not take part in making rules, or embracing the alternative (represented by China and Russia)."

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, left, and Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin, right, listen to Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi speak at the Munich Security Conference in Munich, Germany, Feb. 18. AFP-Yonhap

THAAD feud shows who pays the price

When Beijing unleased retaliatory measures against Seoul following its decision to allow the deployment of the U.S. Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system on South Korean soil in 2016, Washington did not intervene, even though the primary reason for the bitter reaction was that China viewed it as a U.S. threat in disguise to its own security.

When China imposed trade restrictions on Australia as an apparent attempt at coercion over a series of diplomatic issues, the U.S. reaction was no different, at least on the surface.

These episodes demonstrate who bears the cost of a diplomatically insensitive approach to a sensitive issue. If South Korea immediately takes the side of the U.S. without deep consideration as it appears now, the consequences will be similar, according to Kim Joon-hyung, a professor of international relations at Handong Global University and former chancellor of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy.

"The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act is another example of the U.S. putting its interest ahead of its allies even after South Korea and its companies were cooperative," he said. "I agree that the alliance with the U.S. is critical for South Korea, but that does not mean that we should accept the U.S.' Indo-Pacific strategy, which would be more in the interests of the U.S. and Japan than that of South Korea."

The fundamental question South Korean politicians should ponder is whether their country would be safer with a more militarily powerful Japan, which will double its defense spending in the next five years, because South Korea's security cooperation would help Japan expand its role as a global military power, Kim said.

In the view of Washington, the real purpose of strengthening the trilateral cooperation is to counter Beijing, not North Korea, he said. If North Korea reinforces ties with China and Russia as a counterforce to the U.S.-led trilateral cooperation, it could be most harmful to South Korea, which is vulnerable to such a climate as a country reliant on trade, Kim added.

"We should not be at the forefront of that conflict," he said. "Rather, we should learn from countries such as India that have gained benefits from both sides amid the U.S.-China rivalry by taking advantage of its possible role in the Quad (a strategic security dialogue between Australia, India, Japan and the U.S.)."