[ANALYSIS] Trilateral ties strengthen deterrence against Pyongyang, but with greater risk

The Korea Times

The Korea Times

National

Mon, December 4, 2023 | 16:02

Foreign Affairs

ANALYSISTrilateral ties strengthen deterrence against Pyongyang, but with greater risk

Posted : 2023-08-20 17:00

Updated : 2023-08-21 14:03

President Yoon Suk Yeol and his Japanese counterpart Fumio Kishida shake hands during their trilateral summit with U.S. President Joe Biden at Camp David, the presidential retreat, near Thurmont, Md., Friday (local time). Reuters-Yonhap

Experts' views differ on sustainability of Seoul-Washington-Tokyo security partnership

By Jung Min-ho

The leaders of South Korea, the United States and Japan said their trilateral partnership entered a new era after the summit at Camp David, Friday (local time), vowing to redouble their joint efforts in handling security challenges in the Indo-Pacific region.

In a joint statement in which they directly mentioned China, Russia and North Korea, President Yoon Suk Yeol, U.S. President Joe Biden and Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida committed themselves to united actions against their common threats, saying the partnership is "stronger than ever."

Speaking to The Korea Times on Sunday, experts said the summit hosted by Washington was a truly historic one, which offers many opportunities and promises to South Korea. One of the most obvious and significant benefits will be stronger deterrence against a nuclear-armed North Korea. But they also warned of greater geopolitical risks that the country now has to face, along with all the diplomatic gains.

"What's more important than winning a war against North Korea is preventing it in the first place, with overwhelming military forces. In this regard, the meeting was a success for South Korea, which cannot handle the threats alone at this point," said Kim Yeoul-soo, an analyst at the Korea Institute for Military Affairs, a think tank.

What was agreed at the summit is expected to be maintained even if Donald Trump returns to the White House ― one of the biggest risk factors to the partnership ― given that it includes the core interests of all three parties and a system in place for regular, deep-level exchanges, he said.

"The agreements include strengthened deterrence against North Korea for the South, joint efforts against Chinese threats to the Senkaku Islands for Japan, and the U.S.' global agenda including countering Beijing's clout in Asia," Kim said.

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"Given their plans for regular trilateral meetings between not just leaders but also other top officials and bipartisan support for anti-Beijing measures in the U.S. Congress, a potential Trump win won't be overturned immediately."

U.S. President Joe Biden stands with President Yoon Suk Yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida during a joint news conference at Camp David, the presidential retreat, near Thurmont, Md., Friday (local time). AP-Yonhap

The pact, led by the U.S. and joined by its Asian allies, underlines security challenges posed by China and their united responses, such as technology protection measures, which Korean companies worry would hurt their business operations in the vast market, which they cannot afford to leave.

Chung Jae-hung, a researcher at the Sejong Institute, is worried that South Korea's big bet on the U.S. and Japan could backfire.

"The security benefits South Korea seeks to gain from the pact are not free. Ironically, South Korea is now exposed to greater geopolitical risks involving not just the North but also China and Russia," he said.

"As the THAAD revenge showed, South Korea could be left alone taking all the diplomatic damage in the end with little or no support from the U.S. or Japan … The government insists it can have good relations with China and Russia while doing this. But it's not possible, and the consequences could be serious."

Throughout their joint statements, Yoon, Biden and Kishida emphasized their strong unity. Paradoxically, this hints at the vulnerability of the partnership, according to Cho Han-bum, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification.

"I think what the U.S. ultimately wants is a military alliance between South Korea and Japan. Given that it is politically impossible at this point (because of deep, historic grievances between the two countries), the three allies, it seems, found things they could agree on," he said.

Cho believes the biggest risk to the trilateral security partnership is the Seoul-Tokyo relationship.

"Many diplomatic issues between the two countries remain unresolved and will likely remain so. Japan still makes territorial claims to Dokdo and its politicians have not stopped sending offerings to the Yasukuni Shrine," he said.

"The partnership will soon be tested when Japan begins to release water from its Fukushima nuclear plant."

Presidential officials said Yoon expressed his intention to host the second trilateral summit in Seoul early next year.

mj6c2@koreatimes.co.kr