Washington may signal Pyongyang 'not to get greedy at summit'
By Kim Jae-kyoung
U.S. President Donald Trump is aiming to achieve two goals through his recent picks for hawkish national security adviser and secretary of state, American experts on North Korea said, Monnday.
First, Trump is pressuring North Korean leader Kim Jong-un not to expect too much from the upcoming summit slated for May.
Second, he wants to clarify his position to his staff and politicians in Washington about his hard-line approach _ maximum pressure while being open to talks. Simply speaking, there will be no let-up in sanctions against the reclusive regime.
"I'm pretty sure Trump is signaling Kim not to get greedy about the proposed summit, and not to ask for relief from maximum pressure without real progress," William Brown, adjunct professor at Georgetown School of Foreign Service, told The Korea Times
"But Trump may be equally talking to the Washington establishment, who won't like the picks, pulling them back from expectations that the administration is going to go easy on North Korea."
Brown, who previously worked for the CIA and the National Intelligence Council, compared Trump's strategy to the "Nixon engagement with Mao," saying he has to cover his conservative bases in order to reach out.
"He certainly has done that with these two appointments so let's see how Kim responds," he said.
"I expect there is even more pressure now on Pyongyang's America experts, trying to figure an agenda for their meeting."
Brown's analysis came after Trump picked John Bolton, a hawkish former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, as his new security adviser, Friday.
Bolton has backed the use of military force against North Korea, and was previously rejected as a negotiating partner by Pyongyang which described him as "human scum."
The appointment came a week after Trump tapped Mike Pompeo, another hardliner, as the secretary of state. Pompeo is a former CIA director who is known as a staunch loyalist of the U.S. president.
Sean King, senior vice president of Park Strategies, said Bolton's rise signals little chance that Trump will fall for possible tricks by the recalcitrant North Korean leader.
"With Bolton around, Trump's less likely to be taken in by Kim and believe whatever North Korea tells him," the New York-based East Asia specialist said.
"Bolton can be reassuring in this sense, helping see to it that Trump doesn't give away too much when dealing with Kim."
From King's perspective, in the bigger picture, Bolton's presence could seriously disenchant Beijing.
"That's because he's forcefully spoken out for Japan having a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council and only last year suggested redeploying some U.S. forces on Okinawa to Taiwan," he said.
Tara O, adjunct fellow at the Pacific Forum CSIS, believes the U.S. considering all options hasn't changed.
"Bolton has a reputation for being intelligent, relentless, and effective," she said.
Through Bolton, she said "Trump is trying to secure the best outcome for the U.S. and its allies."
As for Pompeo who is facing a confirmation hearing for the secretary of state in early April, analysts say he is on the same page as Trump regarding North Korea policy.
"Trump has great confidence in Pompeo who apparently agrees with Trump's approach to North Korea _ maximum pressure while being open to talks," said Joseph DeTrani, a former U.S. special envoy to the six-party talks with North Korea.
"As the secretary of state, Pompeo will help him navigate policy toward North Korea. This is the president's prerogative, and it should be respected, especially now, when he plans to meet with Kim Jong-un."
King expects Pompeo to reinforce much of Trump's own gut hard-line approach.
"Pompeo will also certainly draw North Korean lines to and from Iran's nuclear program on which he has very hawkish views, as does President Trump," he said.
Trump still in charge
Trump's picks for security adviser and top U.S. diplomat are fanning worries but experts expect no big changes in North Korea policy because Trump will always be in charge no matter what.
"Trump still leads North Korea policy, so don't expect a huge change because of any specific personnel appointment," King said.
"What's more, given the president's dynamic nature, we're perhaps even more likely to see at times almost daily change from Trump himself as opposed to any change from Tillerson to Pompeo."
Brown stressed the key is to not let political expectations get ahead of reality because it has been expected that North Korea would focus on Seoul if its economic troubles become severe and this is exactly what it is doing.
"Now we must take advantage and use the world's economic leverage to force big changes in the way Pyongyang runs the country," he said.
"It means both President Moon Jae-in and Trump need to be ready to walk away from a bad deal and return to maximum pressure if needed, and Kim needs to know that."
By Kim Jae-kyoung
U.S. President Donald Trump is aiming to achieve two goals through his recent picks for hawkish national security adviser and secretary of state, American experts on North Korea said, Monnday.
First, Trump is pressuring North Korean leader Kim Jong-un not to expect too much from the upcoming summit slated for May.
Second, he wants to clarify his position to his staff and politicians in Washington about his hard-line approach _ maximum pressure while being open to talks. Simply speaking, there will be no let-up in sanctions against the reclusive regime.
"I'm pretty sure Trump is signaling Kim not to get greedy about the proposed summit, and not to ask for relief from maximum pressure without real progress," William Brown, adjunct professor at Georgetown School of Foreign Service, told The Korea Times
"But Trump may be equally talking to the Washington establishment, who won't like the picks, pulling them back from expectations that the administration is going to go easy on North Korea."
Brown, who previously worked for the CIA and the National Intelligence Council, compared Trump's strategy to the "Nixon engagement with Mao," saying he has to cover his conservative bases in order to reach out.
"He certainly has done that with these two appointments so let's see how Kim responds," he said.
"I expect there is even more pressure now on Pyongyang's America experts, trying to figure an agenda for their meeting."
Brown's analysis came after Trump picked John Bolton, a hawkish former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, as his new security adviser, Friday.
Bolton has backed the use of military force against North Korea, and was previously rejected as a negotiating partner by Pyongyang which described him as "human scum."
The appointment came a week after Trump tapped Mike Pompeo, another hardliner, as the secretary of state. Pompeo is a former CIA director who is known as a staunch loyalist of the U.S. president.
Sean King, senior vice president of Park Strategies, said Bolton's rise signals little chance that Trump will fall for possible tricks by the recalcitrant North Korean leader.
"With Bolton around, Trump's less likely to be taken in by Kim and believe whatever North Korea tells him," the New York-based East Asia specialist said.
"Bolton can be reassuring in this sense, helping see to it that Trump doesn't give away too much when dealing with Kim."
From King's perspective, in the bigger picture, Bolton's presence could seriously disenchant Beijing.
"That's because he's forcefully spoken out for Japan having a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council and only last year suggested redeploying some U.S. forces on Okinawa to Taiwan," he said.
Tara O, adjunct fellow at the Pacific Forum CSIS, believes the U.S. considering all options hasn't changed.
"Bolton has a reputation for being intelligent, relentless, and effective," she said.
Through Bolton, she said "Trump is trying to secure the best outcome for the U.S. and its allies."
As for Pompeo who is facing a confirmation hearing for the secretary of state in early April, analysts say he is on the same page as Trump regarding North Korea policy.
"Trump has great confidence in Pompeo who apparently agrees with Trump's approach to North Korea _ maximum pressure while being open to talks," said Joseph DeTrani, a former U.S. special envoy to the six-party talks with North Korea.
"As the secretary of state, Pompeo will help him navigate policy toward North Korea. This is the president's prerogative, and it should be respected, especially now, when he plans to meet with Kim Jong-un."
King expects Pompeo to reinforce much of Trump's own gut hard-line approach.
"Pompeo will also certainly draw North Korean lines to and from Iran's nuclear program on which he has very hawkish views, as does President Trump," he said.
Trump still in charge
Trump's picks for security adviser and top U.S. diplomat are fanning worries but experts expect no big changes in North Korea policy because Trump will always be in charge no matter what.
"Trump still leads North Korea policy, so don't expect a huge change because of any specific personnel appointment," King said.
"What's more, given the president's dynamic nature, we're perhaps even more likely to see at times almost daily change from Trump himself as opposed to any change from Tillerson to Pompeo."
Brown stressed the key is to not let political expectations get ahead of reality because it has been expected that North Korea would focus on Seoul if its economic troubles become severe and this is exactly what it is doing.
"Now we must take advantage and use the world's economic leverage to force big changes in the way Pyongyang runs the country," he said.
"It means both President Moon Jae-in and Trump need to be ready to walk away from a bad deal and return to maximum pressure if needed, and Kim needs to know that."
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