[ANALYSIS] Doubts raised over North Korea's spy satellite claims

The Korea Times

The Korea Times

North Korea

Sat, September 23, 2023 | 07:12

ANALYSISDoubts raised over North Korea's spy satellite claims

Posted : 2022-12-19 17:03

Updated : 2022-12-19 17:52

This photo released Monday by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency shows a projectile fired at the Sohae satellite launching station in North Pyongan Province, North Korea. Yonhap

Pyongyang appears to have fired Rodong missiles equipped with cameras: experts

By Jung Min-ho

North Korea claimed Monday that it conducted a final-stage test for the development of its first spy satellite, vowing to complete preparations for the project by April 2023.

Accompanying the report by the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) were black-and-white, low-resolution images showing two South Korean cities ― Seoul and Incheon. North Korea's National Aerospace Development Administration called the test results a "success" which it claimed verified the key technologies required for the launch of reconnaissance satellites, according to KCNA.

Pyongyang made the announcement a day after firing two intermediate-range ballistic missiles from the Sohae satellite launching station, in a clear attempt to demonstrate its will to acquire the high-tech military system ― one of the goals set by leader Kim Jong-un in 2021.

These photos released Sunday by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency show Seoul, right, and Incheon. North Korea claimed they were taken from a "test-piece satellite" that it fired the previous day. Yonhap

Based on the photos and information released by the North, experts believe the claims about the level of its satellite technology, including the plan to put one into orbit in the near future, are vastly exaggerated, if not a complete fabrication.

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"It appears that what the North claimed as rockets were slightly modified medium-range Rodong missiles," said Yang Uk, an associate research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, a think tank. "The quality of the images supposedly taken during Sunday's launches, also suggest that any claims about its space technologies are difficult to believe. They were very low-resolution, which would be unusual for military purposes … It is also important to keep in mind that North Korea has not mentioned specifics regarding the level of the reconnaissance satellite it is working on."

Shin Jong-woo, a senior researcher at the Korea Defense and Security Forum agreed.

"Although North Korea's satellite technology could become a significant security threat one day, there has been no evidence of any meaningful achievement so far. To me, the 'rockets' looked like white-painted Rodong missiles," Shin said. "It may well be another lie for North Korea's propaganda or an excuse for weapons tests that it may be planning for the coming months."

Their assessments echo the views of the South Korean and U.S. militaries.

Kim Jun-rak, a spokesman for the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), told reporters that the JCS would not change its previous conclusion that what North Korea launched were ballistic missiles, which flew about 500 km before landing in the waters between the Korean Peninsula and Japan.

North Korea claimed the purpose of the latest test was to assess the satellite's photography and data transmission systems.

Developing reconnaissance satellites was one of the key objectives the North Korean leader set during last year's ruling party meeting to strengthen the reclusive state's military capabilities, together with multi-warhead missiles, solid-fuel long-range missiles, underwater-launched nuclear weapons and nuclear-powered submarines.

The North appears to have made progress in some of the areas. Last week, it tested a high-thrust solid-fuel motor that experts say could allow quicker and harder-to-detect launches of ICBMs. It is also believed to have completed a new 3,000-ton submarine capable of carrying three SLBMs.

Experts say, in the long term, North Korea could develop a spy satellite, a possibility South Korea and the U.S. must prepare for. But the current level of North Korea's satellite abilities is not highly concerning, they added.

"One of the weak points of North Korea's military is a lack of ability to collect reliable information. Developing a high-performance reconnaissance satellite would certainly pose a significant threat, given that it would enable the North to assess when and where to attack more effectively," Shin said. "However, given what has been revealed so far, it still seems a distant goal for North Korea."

mj6c2@koreatimes.co.kr