Ukrainian first lady's visit could pressure Seoul to ship arms to Kyiv

First lady of Ukraine Olena Zelenska arrives for a reception hosted by Britain's King Charles, for overseas guests attending his coronation at Buckingham Palace in London, United Kingdom, May 5. Reuters-Yonhap

By Nam Hyun-woo

Ukraine's first lady Olena Zelenska is now in Seoul as part of her campaign to advocate the safety of Ukrainian mothers and children in the face of Russia's aggression against her country.

However, her visit may serve as a catalyst urging South Korea to provide arms or other military support to Kyiv despite Moscow's threats against such aid, prompting diplomatic observers to believe that her trip aligns with Ukraine's repeated calls for Seoul to provide arms support.

According to diplomatic sources, the Ukrainian first lady arrived in Seoul, Monday. She is expected to attend a forum hosted by a local newspaper later this week among other events.

"Zelenska is expected to highlight the safety of Ukrainian mothers and children, as well as the illegality of Russia's aggression against her country, based on her recent messages," said Park Won-gon, a professor at Ewha Womans University.

"This will likely lead to discussions on providing arms support to Ukraine, although it may not be explicitly stated in public comments," he added.

Currently, South Korea provides only humanitarian and economic assistance to Ukraine, following the principle of not including lethal weapons in support offered to foreign countries.

However, President Yoon Suk Yeol signaled a major shift from this principle during a media interview last month, stating that it may be difficult for Seoul to insist solely on humanitarian or financial support if there is "a situation the international community cannot condone, such as a large-scale attack on civilians, massacres, or serious violations of the laws of war."

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Those remarks drew hostile responses from Russia, with Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chair of the Russian National Security Council, asking, "I wonder what the residents of this nation (South Korea) would say when they see the newest Russian weapons in the hands of their closest neighbor―our allies in the DPRK?" DPRK stands for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, North Korea's official name.

South Korean lawmakers watch Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy delivering an address during a videoconference at the National Assembly in Yeouido, Seoul, April 11, 2022. Korea Times photo by Oh Dae-keun

Seoul has been under pressure to offer military aid to Ukraine, not only from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, but also from Western countries, despite its geopolitical proximity to Russia and North Korea.

During a National Assembly speech on April 12 last year, Zelenskyy also urged Seoul to provide military aid to the war-torn country, citing Korea's possession of various military equipment to counter Russian missiles and naval vessels.

"Ukraine and European nations are urging South Korea to provide arms support because it is one of the few countries capable of doing so," Park said.

"South Korea is one of the few countries whose weapons and ammunition are compatible with Ukraine's and it possesses a rich inventory of ammunition."

The most frequently mentioned weapon for supporting Ukraine is the 155-millimeter artillery shell. Although South Korea does not directly export these rounds to Ukraine, multiple reports indicate that Seoul has indirectly addressed Ukraine's ammunition needs by exporting shells to the United States and other countries that provided their own ammunition to Ukraine.

"The Ukrainian first lady's visit will likely be the first in a series of calls for arms support that President Yoon will face in a string of diplomatic events he will attend in the coming weeks," Park said.

Yoon is scheduled to have a summit with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in Seoul, Wednesday. He will then fly to Hiroshima, Japan, to attend the Group of Seven (G7) summit and meet with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on May 21, followed by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel on May 22.

Given that there have been rumors about South Korea considering exporting 155-millimeter artillery rounds to Canada, and the Ukraine War is anticipated to be the main topic of the G7 Summit, Seoul's potential arms support to Ukraine is likely to feature prominently in Yoon's diplomatic schedule in the coming weeks.

"This indicates that Seoul's ambivalence toward the Ukraine issue is diminishing and the country needs to determine its stance on the Ukraine War," Park said.

"If it perceives the Ukraine War as an international dispute ― as the opposition claims ― South Korea should refrain from providing arms support to Kyiv, even if Western countries express their regret. However, if the country defines the Ukraine War as Russia's illegal aggression against Ukraine, it should consider providing arms support, even if it means enduring Russia's hostile responses," he added.