[1st YEAR in OFFICE] Yoon overtly aligns with US to counter NK threats

President Yoon Suk Yeol poses with U.S. President Joe Biden on the North Portico of the White House in Washington, D.C., ahead of a state dinner, April 26. AP-Yonhap

Gov't tasked with breaking ice with China

By Lee Hyo-jin

Prosecutor-turned-president Yoon Suk Yeol, who had no foreign policy experience until his inauguration in May 2022, went through a tough first year as South Korea faced mounting challenges on the global stage.

The Yoon administration was tasked with dealing with heightening nuclear tensions with North Korea, intensifying power struggles between the United States and China, as well as geopolitical consequences stemming from Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

In particular, the increasingly confrontational U.S.-China relationship has forced South Korea to walk a tightrope between Beijing, its largest trade partner, and Washington, a long-standing ally since the 1950-53 Korean War.

Unlike his predecessor Moon Jae-in, who pursued strategic ambiguity between the two nations, Yoon quickly chose a clear path: pivoting away from Beijing and tilting toward Washington.

Such an approach has helped South Korea strengthen its defense posture against Pyongyang's evolving nuclear threats, according to analysts. But at the same time, it has invited pushbacks from Beijing, a looming concern that the Yoon government should be more wary of.

"Yoon helped re-pivot Seoul's foreign policy centered around the U.S. alliance. This was a critical step, particularly in light of North Korea's expanding nuclear and missile capabilities and Kim Jong-un's intransigence vis-a-vis denuclearization," Soo Kim, policy practice area lead at LMI Consulting and former CIA analyst, told The Korea Times in an email interview.

Kim went on to say that close relations with the U.S., as well as Japan, are integral for South Korea in maintaining the cohesiveness of the three countries' shared values in democracy and adherence to the international order.

Robert Manning, a distinguished senior fellow of the Stimson Center, echoed the sentiment, saying, "Yoon's foreign policy appears to be designed to deepen South Korea's integration and enlarge its global role in the U.S.-led rules-based order emphasizing a congruence of values."

He positively assessed Yoon's push for reconciliation with Japan, which has opened a path for enhancing trilateral intelligence and security cooperation between Seoul, Washington and Tokyo.

One of Yoon's key policy priorities during his first year in office was mending years-long strained ties with Tokyo. And he succeeded in doing so, with the two nations agreeing to move forward from historical grievances.

Regarding this, Oh Joon, former South Korean ambassador to the United Nations, said, "Normalization of bilateral ties with Japan was necessary step to deal with the growing threats from North Korea by strengthening three-way military cooperation with Japan and the U.S. However, it should be reminded that even such a rationale is not likely to supersede the long-standing public resentment in Korea over the historical disputes with Japan."

President Yoon Suk Yeol shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping during their summit at a hotel in Bali, Indonesia, in this November 2022 photo. Yonhap

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Experts pointed out that Yoon's pro-U.S. policies come at the price of awkward relations with Beijing.

South Korea experienced friction with China following the deployment of a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery in 2017, a U.S. anti-missile defense system designed to counter threats posed by North Korean ballistic missiles.

"Yoon has promised to take a more principled position vis-a-vis the U.S. and China, which is probably easier said than done," Oh said, expressing concerns that Seoul does not have much leverage in dealing with Beijing other than substantial economic interdependence.

"Sooner or later, the Yoon government should consider making a gesture to China to break the ice, so that Beijing, which must also worry about the strained ties with Seoul, can be more forthcoming," he added.

Kim also viewed that "China's looming shadow" is a concern for Seoul that needs to be addressed not only from a unilateral perspective, but conjointly with its alliance with Washington.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, alongside his daughter Ju-ae, inspects a new type of the Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at Pyongyang International Airport in this Nov. 18, 2022 photo released by the North's official Korean Central News Agency. Yonhap

Hawkish stance toward Pyongyang

The conservative Yoon administration's hardline approach to North Korea, which he has maintained since the beginning of his term, is in stark contrast to that of Moon, who had sought inter-Korean rapprochement through dialogue.

In response to repeated nuclear threats from the North, Yoon has been strengthening security cooperation with like-minded allies such as the U.S. and Japan, warning that he will make Pyongyang "pay the price for its reckless provocations."

Manning saw that Yoon's current tactics toward Pyongyang ― strengthening defense while remaining open for talks ― is the most rational approach at this point of time, given that the North Korean leader is not expected to give up his nuclear ambitions.

"There is zero chance of denuclearization as long as the Kim dynasty rules in North Korea," he stressed. But he also noted that some "risk-reduction measures" seem necessary between the two Koreas in order to avoid an accidental or incidental military conflict.

The former U.N. ambassador observed that the two Koreas have been growing accustomed to a new relationship since Yoon took office. As the Yoon administration continues to bolster South Korea's defense capabilities, Pyongyang seems to be lowering its expectations of getting along with Seoul under Yoon's leadership.

However, the career diplomat anticipated Pyongyang to eventually return to denuclearization talks, which may spur a major policy shift for Yoon.

"I think the six-year-old international sanctions on North Korea are taking a toll now, with the effects compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown. There is widespread speculation of a food crisis coming back to North Korea … I think Pyongyang will sooner or later have to come back to denuclearization talks, even if they go for some more provocations for now."

The Yoon administration has so far focused on a stronger military alliance with the U.S. against North Korea, leading to some visible progress. Through the Washington Declaration signed by Yoon and U.S. President Joe Biden during their summit in April, South Korea obtained a pledge from the U.S. for a stronger nuclear umbrella.

"The summit was largely seen as a success … But pomp and ceremony aside, the burning question about Seoul's defenses and extended deterrence remains up for debate," Kim said, noting that it remains unclear what tangible steps the two nations will take to address a North Korean nuclear contingency.

Against this backdrop, the analyst viewed that in the coming years, the Yoon administration should take independent and collective steps to address the security vulnerability posed by its nuclear-armed neighbor by focusing more on Seoul's ability to defend itself in the event of a North Korean nuclear attack.