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| Lee Jun-seok, former chief of the ruling People Power Party, responds to questions during a recent interview with The Korea Times at an office in Yeouido, Seoul. Korea Times photo by Choi Won-suk |
This is the first in a series of interviews with senior politicians in Korea and executives at leading think tanks in Washington over the issue of the country's provision of direct military support to Kyiv as the Ukraine war passes the one-year mark since Russia launched its attack, ending decades of relative stability in Europe. ― ED.
By Kim Yoo-chul
When President Yoon Suk Yeol clearly stressed the importance for South Korea and NATO to stand firmly on the side of "universal values" at the military alliance's gathering in June 2022, the South Korean leader might not have thought how soon his stance would come back to haunt him.
However, so it has. Despite repeated refusals from the Yoon administration to provide actual military weapons to Ukraine ― due partly to concerns over any negative economic developments between Seoul and both China and Russia ― NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg recently pushed President Yoon to help meet Ukraine's need for lethal weapons. Stoltenberg directly asked Yoon for South Korea to "step up."
Since Russia's brutal invasion of Ukraine began last year, South Korea has so far provided non-lethal aid such as gas masks. Seoul has strongly condemned Russia's invasion, with President Yoon calling it, "unlawful and illegitimate." While it's still the hope of Ukraine and NATO that South Korea expands its contribution to the war effort ― as it is a country that is a staunch supporter of the "rules-based order," and has one of the world's most-sophisticated defense industries ― Seoul remains unwilling to send military weapons directly to Ukraine.
Government officials are not denying that the country is facing increasing pressure to supply weapons directly to Ukraine, but South Korea's stance not to do so hasn't changed ― officially, at least.
"South Korea is in the process of stepping up efforts to expand its contribution to Ukraine from a humanitarian perspective," a defense ministry spokesman said. "Seoul will provide an extra $130 million worth of support to Ukraine from $100 million of support, which the country provided last year. But we will pay close attention to Ukraine."
Yet a high-profile South Korean political figure believes the country could be able to provide military weapons directly to Ukraine, as it was Moscow that launched the full-scale invasion of Kyiv. Ukraine is once again preparing for another Russian offensive as the war passes the one-year mark.
"The South Korean government should think thoroughly regarding the possibility that Ukraine's (military) advances could make Russian President Vladimir Putin's position untenable. This would impact the sustainability of the regime. There is a high possibility for Russia to see a breakdown in Putin's regime in any shape because of its aggression against Ukraine," Lee Jun-seok, a former chairman of the ruling People Power Party (PPP), told The Korea Times in a recent interview at an office in Yeouido, Seoul.
He cited the Lend-Lease Act of 1941, which helped the U.S. supply military aid to its allies during World War II, while remaining neutral in the war. "South Korea can't provide military support to a country which waged a war of aggression," he said. "However, I think it's possible for the country to provide actual military weapons (directly) rather than personnel for Ukraine, which has lost some of its territory because of the invasion."
Last year, U.S. President Joe Biden signed into law the Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act. Similarly to the 1941 initiative, this Ukraine-focused act makes it possible for the U.S. to lend or lease military weapons and equipment to Ukraine and other NATO member countries in Eastern Europe including Poland.
Lee directly held an in-person meeting with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv last June, while he was the party chief.
"Since 2022, Ukraine has been consistent in urging South Korea to boost Seoul's military assistance to help it fight the Russian military. Ukraine requested South Korea's provision of specific types of military weapons and equipment as Ukrainians are hoping to be better equipped and motivated to keep going. President Zelenskyy was fully aware of his position and during my meeting with him last year, the Ukraine leader wanted South Korea to do more as Ukraine's presidential office was worried over an indefinite continuation of the war," Lee explained.
"Russia's invasion of Ukraine has opened a door for South Korea's defense exports to grow. If Seoul supplies actual military weapons to Ukraine (directly) and these are to be used in the war, then this will be a huge boost to the country in terms of amplifying weapons-based confidence-building measures."
Previously, President Yoon has said that he wishes to make the country one of the world's largest weapons suppliers, adding that he plans to make South Korea the fourth-largest. In fact, just recently, it signed its largest arms agreement to provide Poland with tanks, artillery and mid-tier fighter jets.
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| Lee Jun-seok, left, then head of South Korea's ruling People Power Party, meets with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on June 6, 2022, in this photo captured from Lee's Facebook account the next day. Yonhap |
Lee went on to say that Putin's claims about a "neo-Nazi" regime in Ukraine as justification for Russia's invasion failed to get support from the international community.
"It will be no good for South Korea to turn a blind eye to the support from the United Nations forces at the time of North Korea's invasion of South Korea with baseless claims," Lee said. The South Korean government is said to have signed a deal with the U.S. to export up to 100,000 rounds of 155mm howitzer ammunition, which would be used as inventory in the U.S. Seoul stressed the U.S. government must be the ammunition's end-user.
Lee said South Korea should clarify its "positioning statement" concerning whether it seeks to strengthen the country's partnership with like-minded allies or to expand the nation's outreach to authoritarian states.
Seoul's passiveness toward the provision of lethal aid for Ukraine is due to South Korea wanting to maintain a sizable economic partnership with Russia and China, according to some political analysts. They say that providing substantial military assistance to Kyiv directly would sour its relationship with Beijing and Moscow. This also could make it tough for the Yoon administration to persuade China to back up its interests regarding North Korean issues.
Heading for ceasefire?
Despite China's recent abrupt proposals to end the war, which only received a lukewarm response from Russia, political analysts say that all interested parties involved in the war have an interest in exploring possible exit strategies. For the time being, it's hard to see how a peaceful resolution will come about. Biden himself remains skeptical about the feasibility of a China-proposed Russia-Ukraine peace plan.
Lee said Biden's surprise visit to Kyiv on Feb. 20, a few days ahead of the one-year anniversary of the start of the war, was aimed primarily at highlighting a dramatic show of solidarity with Zelenskyy.
"Biden's visit to Kyiv reminded me of Dwight D. Eisenhower's visit to Korea during the Korean War as there were concerns over the ceasefire. My understanding about Biden's visit to Ukraine is that the U.S. may want to go in another direction as both Ukraine and Russian forces appear to have made no visible and significant movement," Lee said.
In 1952, then-President-elect Eisenhower went to Korea. After visiting the troops, seeing various battlegrounds and checking the military situation, Eisenhower moved forward with his plans to end the war through a combination of diplomacy and flexing military muscles. An armistice was signed, leaving the Korean Peninsula divided. In Ukraine, eastern parts are controlled by Russian troops and Russia-backed separatists. In Kyiv, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen showcased substantial economic aid to Ukraine.
The former PPP leader said Ukraine was still hoping for South Korea's active participation in the post-war rebuilding processes, as major Ukrainian cities will have to be rebuilt extensively and Ukraine will surely need massive foreign assistance, ranging from funding to technology, so that it can rebuild.
"Specifically, Ukraine wants South Korean companies to participate in infrastructure-related projects such as the construction of new roads, rail networks and ports because these could catalyze the economic recovery," Lee said.
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