[ANALYSIS] Has Yoon's approval rating bottomed out?

President Yoon Suk-yeol speaks at an interview with Reuters in Seoul, South Korea, November 28, 2022. Reuters-Yonhap

South Korean leader's approval rating seems to have stabilized, raising hopes for improved Seoul-Tokyo, Seoul-Beijing ties

By Kim Yoo-chul

It's too early to determine if President Yoon Suk-yeol will benefit from a short-term boost in his job approval rating due to his dogged adherence to principles and the rule of law that has been credited to ending a crippling strike by unionized truck drivers.

But for the first time since Yoon took office in May this year, it seems like his low approval ratings have stabilized, and probably even recovered. Yoon's approval rating stood at 36 percent as of last week, according to a Gallup Korea poll.

From early August to late September, only 24 percent of respondents had approved of Yoon's leadership, and his approval rating did not rise above 29 percent until November. In contrast, Moon Jae-in, Yoon's predecessor, had a 45 percent approval rating when he left office.

The latest numbers clearly represent a meaningful rebound for Yoon.

Here's one story that has been consistent with the numbers: Yoon's approval rating began falling after a record rainfall in early August that killed more than 10 people across the country. His approval rating continued to drop steadily as the South Korean public was not supportive of Yoon's appointments of former prosecutors to his administration, while the ruling People Power Party (PPP) was rocked by various scandals. And the approval rating fell even further after Yoon's pick for education minister suggested lowering the school entry age by one year to five. That gaffe forced the education minister to resign just 34 days after she started the job.

"There are a lot of potential causes behind the recent rebound in Yoon's job approval rating. As there are no major doubts over the gloomy prospects of the economy even next year, his commitment to the law and principles, which were illustrated when it comes to the handling of the truckers' walkout helped his political supporters stay together," Bae Cheol-ho, a chief analyst at a local pollster of Realmeter, said.

Foreign policy support

But while the South Korean public has been focused on domestic policy issues and controversies, the improvement in Yoon's approval rating could have a limited knock-on effect on his foreign policy agenda.

US soldiers attend an inauguration ceremony for the United States Space Forces Korea in Pyeongtaek, South Korea on Dec. 14, 2022. The US military set up the space contingent in South Korea aiming to watch over North Korea's nuclear and missile activities as its capabilities continue to improve. EPA-Yonhap

Getting solid support is necessary to advance Yoon's key foreign policy initiatives, because the conservative leader was elected by a narrow margin in the March presidential race. This means that Yoon and his foreign policy team have a weak foundation of support. Scott Snyder, a director of the U.S.-South Korea Policy program at the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), said Yoon's key foreign policies are in sync with the opinion of the South Korean public.

While the country's support is high for the Biden administration's key foreign policy initiatives that include the Chip 4 alliance, Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), South Korea is also being asked to improve ties with Japan and to distance itself from China, the South's top trading partner.

U.S. intelligence officials said a seventh nuclear test by North Korea could occur this year with Washington officials starting to think about the feasibility of arms control talks as a part of the North's denuclearization process.

A low approval rating is not necessarily a key constraint in terms of a president's ability to implement foreign policy objectives. However, when it comes to the issue of Seoul's relations with Tokyo, Pyongyang and Beijing, there is a high degree of domestic political polarization, according to an aide to Moon, the former president.

Ellen Kim, a deputy director of the Korea Chair at the Washington-based think tank, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said if Yoon's approval rating remains low, this could make his administration become more cautious in addressing some of the diplomatic challenges that are domestically sensitive.

"A high approval rating is important for any leader largely because strong domestic support offers the leader political space and capital needed to create his/her foreign policy agenda and drive new initiatives. For instance, when it comes to the improvement of South Korea-Japan relations, there are still gaps in their approach toward historical and territorial disputes," the deputy director told The Korea Times, adding the Biden administration views an improvement in Seoul-Tokyo ties as an integral part of deterring unilateral attempts to revise the status quo in Northeast Asia.

What can Yoon do?

Because South Korea's top allies and trading partners want the Yoon administration to take a bigger role on the global stage specifically in areas such as the build-up of more resilient global supply chains, it is necessary for Yoon to further improve his domestic standing, political experts said.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida gets into the cockpit of a U.S. fighter jet during his visit to the USS Ronald Reagan, in Sagami Bay, southwest of Tokyo on Nov. 6, 2022. In a major break from its strictly pacifist postwar principle, Japan adopted a national security strategy on Dec. 16, 2022, declaring plans to possess preemptive strike capabilities and cruise missiles within years to gain a more offensive footing against threats from neighboring China and North Korea. AP-Yonhap

The prime challenge for an unpleasant and unpopular leader of a country is that he or she may no longer have a political base to win support on outstanding issues that would encounter domestic resistance.

For example, faced with a pressing threat from North Korea, both South Korea and Japan reached a consensus that the timing is now to renew bilateral ties, which have deteriorated over trade and wartime history.

Foreign ministry officials in Seoul declined to comment on the specifics being discussed between the two countries to mend ties frayed over Japan's past colonial rule over the peninsula.

Similarly, the Yoon administration is trying to mend the country's ties with China, which have also worsened. Yoon has been solidifying Seoul's alliance with Washington beyond the security front to the economy by expanding areas of cooperation as part of a technological alliance aimed at reducing South Korea's dependence on China for trade. The former Moon Jae-in administration pursued a policy of hedging between Washington and Beijing, which won the backing of China.

"From an economic standpoint, if Yoon's approval rating remains at the 40 percent level, it will make the implementation of Yoon's China and Japan policies quite effective despite anti-Japanese and not-that-friendly Chinese sentiment among the [South] Korean public," said Park Sang-byung, a political commentator in Seoul.

Last week, the foreign ministers of South Korea and China held a video conference with Seoul's foreign ministry saying that the two agreed to continue talks to keep the momentum of Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Seoul alive.

But China's foreign ministry did not mention that in a separate statement it issued and only said that Beijing will play a constructive role in the Korean peninsula issue. Rather, the Chinese statement described the U.S. as a rule-breaker by directly mentioning the IRA and CHIPs Acts. Seoul's foreign ministry did not include that criticism in its statement, according to political experts here.

"What should worry President Yoon is any spillover effects on the country's economy. However, his approval rating could be driven also by how he's perceived to be managing foreign affairs and economic issues. This is why President Yoon is considering pardoning former President Lee Myung-bak and former South Gyeongsang Province Gov. Kim Kyoung-soo, later this month," an official at the ruling PPP said, adding the pardons, if they are granted, would probably be a plus in terms of improving Yoon's approval rating. Former Gyeongsang Province Gov. Kim is considered to be one of the top confidants of Moon.

Analysts also point out that because the ruling PPP is unable to move forward with any important foreign policy issues without the support of the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK), which controls a majority of seats in the National Assembly, Yoon and his administration are advised to show both "flexibility and allegiance" to his political supporters and even to DPK members in advancing high-profile foreign policy issues.