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| This photo distributed by the North Korean government shows what it says is a test-fire of a Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile at an undisclosed location in North Korea, March 24. Korea Times file |
US will welcome its allies' military buildup
By Kang Seung-woo
North Korea's growing missile and nuclear threats are sparking an arms race in Northeast Asia, as each country in the region is scrambling to increase its own military capabilities.
Within less than two weeks, North Korea has conducted six rounds of missile tests that included the launch of an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) capable of hitting the U.S. territory of Guam, showing off its advancing missile technology. In addition, it is believed to have fully prepared for a seventh nuclear test.
These provocative military acts are putting some neighboring countries and their allies on a high state of alert.
"The war in Ukraine means that North Korea will be able to test all sorts of weapons ― hypersonic missiles, submarine-launched systems, nuclear weapons and of course ICBMs ― and pay no penalty as Washington is distracted while Russia and China are unwilling to help," said Harry Kazianis, the president of Rogue States Project, a think tank.
"The Kim Jong-un regime will certainly test as much as they can during this unique time period, driving Washington and its allies to increase their own military capabilities. That means not only are we in for an arms race in Northeast Asia, but the stage is set for Japan and South Korea to actively consider developing and deploying their own nuclear weapons. We are far beyond a simple arms race at this point."
As Kazianis pointed out, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida conveyed his resolve to drastically strengthen Japan's defense capabilities during his phone talks with U.S. President Joe Biden, Tuesday, following Pyongyang's IRBM launch.
"North Korea is the threat driving the South Korean missile development," said Bruce Bennett, a senior international defense analyst at the RAND Corporation.
"South Korea is seeking a larger missile that can deliver a very large conventional warhead to North Korea, or a more normal warhead out to a very long range."
Bennett's mention of a larger missile refers to the South Korean military's unveiling of the so-called Hyunmoo-5 ballistic missile on Armed Forces Day last Saturday, in response to a series of North Korea's provocations. The new missile is believed to carry the largest warhead the South has developed so far, with a flight range of 3,000 kilometers.
"A number of countries are seeking to enhance their capabilities, and that does amount to a Northeast Asia arms race," Bennett said.
Along with North Korea, the United States and China are also to blame for the regional arms race, according to Bennett.
"Actually, I think it is China that is leading the regional nuclear arms race, with its apparent creation of hundreds of missile silos for missiles apparently carrying nuclear weapons," he said.
"Don't count out the United States, which is building its own theater missiles after an arms control hiatus with Russia."
He added that the U.S.' military buildup may put South Korea and Japan in trouble as Washington will be looking for locations to base those missiles.
"The missiles the United States is developing could reach well into China from South Korea. The new missiles will be a much bigger threat to China than THAAD, so a major confrontation with China may well develop," Bennett said.
Due to its decision in 2016 to station a U.S. THAAD battery in South Korea, the Chinese government has been carrying out an economic retaliation campaign by imposing unofficial boycotts on Korean products and enforcing tourism restrictions.
The military buildup by South Korea and Japan comes as the U.S. has a limited bandwidth to deal with North Korea's threats due to the current situation.
"I think the United States will welcome the growth in South Korean military capabilities. It bolsters deterrence and takes some of the weight off the U.S. side of the alliance," U.S. Naval War College Professor Terence Roehrig said.
Kazianis also said, "Washington knows that tough words, sanctions and temporary military deployments to the Korean Peninsula won't work ― only action and deeds will deter North Korea. That means providing any and all defensive platforms that Seoul can use."
