[ANALYSIS] China unlikely to deter North Korea's nuclear ambitions

U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping hold a meeting on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Bali, Indonesia, Nov. 14. Reuters-Yonhap

Pyongyang's testing schedule based on its own calculations: experts

By Kang Seung-woo

Despite U.S. President Joe Biden's warning that China's reluctance to deter North Korea's provocations will ensure a bigger U.S. presence in the region, there are no signs that Beijing will mount any aggressive efforts against the North ― nor compliance by Pyongyang ― according to diplomatic observers.

Earlier this month, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Biden held their first face-to-face summit since the U.S. leader took office in January 2021, during which the U.S. president stressed China's obligation to dissuade North Korea from engaging in unlawful and destabilizing acts. Biden also said that without China's efforts, the U.S. will be obliged to take more defensive actions in the Indo-Pacific region, which will be "up in the face of China." China is North Korea's sole economic pipeline and diplomatic guardian.

North Korea has ratcheted up tensions on the Korean Peninsula by launching ballistic missiles 31 times this year, including eight rounds of intercontinental ballistic missile launches. Plus, the self-proclaimed nuclear state has been fully preparing for a seventh nuclear test, which would be its first since 2017.

Experts said the Chinese government will not be pleased with the Biden warning, but it has few options available to deter North Korea's provocations.

"I assume that China is unhappy with the warnings coming from the Biden administration. But there is little that Beijing can do, since Washington's policy is clear and Pyongyang seems to be in no mood to change its behavior any time soon," said Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a professor of international relations at King's College London.

Pacheco Pardo also said China has little interest in supporting the U.S. in dealing with North Korea.

"As long as the Biden administration continues to label China as its biggest long-term threat, imposes tech sanctions on China, and generally has poor relations with the Chinese government, I don't see any incentive for Xi Jinping to support the U.S. on this," he added.

Echoing Pacheco Pardo's comments about China's displeasure, U.S. Naval War College Professor Terence Roehrig questioned whether Beijing can actually exert influence on the Kim Jong-un regime, saying that North Korea's missile launches are conducted based on its own timetable.

"I think China will quietly seek to convince North Korea to scale back its actions, but I doubt it will have much success," Roehrig said.

"While Beijing has some influence over North Korean behavior and may have tried to exert some pressure on Pyongyang to moderate its actions, I think we largely overestimate the influence China has over North Korea. The DPRK's testing schedule is dictated by its own calculations based on technical needs to improve its missile capabilities and to signal its resolve."

The acronym DPRK stands for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, North Korea's official name.

Roehrig also said that China is also likely to communicate its concerns to South Korea, which will be a reminder of the economic punishment Beijing imposed after the THAAD deployment in an attempt to deter any enthusiasm Seoul might have for an increased U.S. presence.

In 2016, South Korea decided to station the U.S. anti-missile shield on its soil, but the decision resulted in China's economic retaliation, including banning Chinese group tours to South Korea and curbing cultural imports.

Jenny Town, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center and director of the 38 North Program, a website dedicated to the analysis of North Korea, said history was not on Biden's side, adding that calling for China to play its role in resolving North Korea's nuclear issue, was a failed idea from the past.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, left, and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un wave from an open top limousine as they travel along a street in Pyongyang, North Korea in this June 20, 2019 photo. Xinhua-Yonhap

"I'm first of all disappointed that we're back to a U.S. narrative that 'China needs to do more to control North Korea,'" she said.

"That certainly didn't work in 2017, when China was willing to crack down harder on North Korea per the U.S.-led maximum pressure campaign. And as we saw, that did not lead to compliance by North Korea but rather Pyongyang doubling down on its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) development ― testing its first ICBMs and a hydrogen bomb."

She also said the warning rings hollow as the U.S. and its allies have been already bolstering defenses in the region under the rubric of U.S.-China competition, including the establishment of new minilateral security pacts involving a small group of countries, such as AUKUS, a trilateral security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, an alliance to counter China.

"The question that comes from these kinds of threats is even if North Korea stopped testing, does that mean military buildup in the region would stop or would it still continue, just more gradually?" she queried.

As the U.S. is seeking to strengthen trilateral cooperation against North Korea and furthermore China, Beijing, which is required to build up its own security bloc with Russia and North Korea, has an underlying reason to keep Pyongyang close as a security partner, she added.

Pacheco Pardo said despite the Biden warning, North Korea is not high on the agenda of the two countries, raising questions over their sincerity toward resolving the issue.

"I don't think that either the US or China see the North Korean issue as a priority right now. Thus, I don't think that Biden or Xi will spend political capital trying to seriously deal with the Kim Jong-un regime," he added.