Steer Korea toward another take-off

This is the 1st in a "Letters to President Yoon" series The Korea Times has organized to convey policy recommendations in open letters from politicians, scholars and experts to President Yoon Suk-yeol following his May 10 inauguration. ― ED.

By Kim Won-soo

Dear Mr. President,

I convey my heartfelt congratulations to you on taking the helm of Team Korea for the next five years. I empathize with you for the enormity of the responsibility that you said you felt for the future of the Korean people upon winning the election, which must have been a sleepless night for you and many Koreans.

I fully share your sense of a historic mission as Korea stands at an inflection point. Depending on the choices you make, the future of Korea could move in virtually opposite directions, either toward another take-off or start to decline.

On the national security and foreign policy fronts, challenges are great and many. Unfortunately, your government takes office in the midst of a double perfect storm:

(1) An external perfect storm has formed at three levels: global (the intensifying rivalry between the United States and China), regional (historical and territorial disputes) and the Korean Peninsula (persisting security issues including North Korea's nuclear weapons)

(2) An internal perfect storm has risen from growing social division (inter-generational and gender gaps as well as the marginalization of social minorities), economic inequality and political polarization. This domestic perfect storm has been brewing since the 2007 financial crisis and recently has been aggravated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Both crises hit the socially weak and economically poor harder. The extremely narrow margin of the March 9 presidential election outcome lay bare the deepening polarization we are experiencing. Certainly, this phenomenon is not limited to Korea but found in a growing number of democracies.

This double perfect storm is causing unprecedented hyper-uncertainty. It will constrain the new government's policy maneuverability to an extent unseen since the end of the Korean War.

South Korea has gone through many turbulent times in the past. One crucial difference is that back then, the South Korean people showed robust support for the government's foreign and security policies. For example, even under the military-turned-civilian presidency of the late Roh Tae-woo, his Nordpolitik aimed at bringing about a rapprochement with former Cold War adversaries enjoyed strong public support.

A robust domestic consensus is needed now more than ever in the face of the external perfect storm. Unfortunately, this is not possible with the domestic perfect storm dividing and polarizing the South Korean people.

Mr. President, this situation puts your national security and foreign policy teams in an unenvious position, no matter how capable they are, they will likely struggle to chart the way forward in a hyper-uncertain environment constrained by a lack of domestic consensus.

One thing is clear: There is no magic solution nor a one-size-fits-all solution. Under these circumstances, we have no other choice but to go back to the basics.

First, we must aim for the best yet prepare for the worst simultaneously. This requires comprehensive scenario-based policy planning covering all possible contingencies. It must include risk assessment, preventive strategy, early warning, credible crisis management and enhanced preparedness.

Secondly, our comprehensive policy planning needs to be closely coordinated with our ally, the United States. Then it needs to be shared with Japan through the trilateral consultation mechanism between Seoul, Washington and Tokyo. To that end, it should be an urgent priority to repair South Korea-Japan relations, the weakest link in the trilateral relationship.

We must also consult with China and Russia, the major patrons of North Korea. We may consider bringing the European Union on board with regard to the North Korean nuclear issue. The positive role of the EU is well recognized in the Iranian nuclear deal.

Thirdly, we need to keep expanding our diplomatic horizon. South Korea can bring together like-minded middle powers over issues of common concern, such as climate change and weapons of mass destruction and terrorism.

Mr. President, I fully agree with your aspirations to make Korea a "global pivot state." South Korea deserves a higher standing commensurate with its elevated economic clout and growing soft power.

Yet, the devil is in the detail. I have no doubt your seasoned national security and foreign policy teams will design a concrete blueprint for action to turn the declared aspirations into reality. However, I am afraid they cannot afford to take their time. The real test is likely to come sooner rather than later, as it can come from a number of different directions at any level without much advance warning.

I strongly hope this policy planning process will be bipartisan and inclusive. It is critical to restore domestic consensus as quickly as possible. Strengthening the public-private partnership is one way to do it.

Only by having a robust domestic consensus can we withstand the external perfect storm. And it is in turn only possible by withstanding the domestic perfect storm of division, inequality, and polarization. This formidable task must start with reaching out to all Koreans, particularly those who did not support you in the election.

For major powers, diplomacy may rest at home. But for us, getting bigger while still smaller relative to our neighbors, diplomacy must start at home. We must put our house in order first so we can speak and act with one voice for our national interests. For this, Mr. President, I count on your leadership as our top diplomat. I count on your commitment to shield Team Korea from the double perfect storm. I count on your vision to steer Team Korea toward another take-off.

Sincerely,
Kim Won-soo

The writer (wsk4321@gmail.com) is the former under secretary-general of the United Nations and the high representative for disarmament. As a Korean diplomat, he served as secretary to the ROK president for foreign affairs. He is now the chair of the international advisory board of the Future Consensus Institute (Yeosijae) and a member of the Group of Eminent Persons for the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBTO).