[ANALYSIS] Evolving from mediator to balancer

Experts, former presidential aides advise Yoon's inter-Korean relations team to learn from limits of 'shuttle diplomacy' implemented by Moon administration

By Kim Yoo-chul

"What's happening in Ukraine is never irrelevant to Korea," said President Yoon Suk-yeol during his presidential campaign.

With attention globally focused on the updates of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, "There are possibilities North Korea could perform strategic provocations and we have to further strengthen deterrence to take on the North's nuclear and missile threats because peace can only be achieved through strength," according to Yoon.

The intent behind these messages is clear. While South Korea and the United States are trying to continue to get North Korea involved in dialogue, the deepening Ukraine conflict and China's dissatisfaction with Washington pushing for a broader IPEF network as well as strengthening the Quad will likely put additional pressure on the Yoon administration.

One question is: how might North Korea react to the Ukraine war, and to what level of extent will Russia's invasion of Ukraine have an actual impact on Pyongyang's thinking toward Washington and even its attitude toward its missile development and the possibility of nuclear tests?

The bottom line is that both Washington and Seoul want to restart diplomatic talks with Pyongyang without preconditions. Inter-Korean relations have been stalled since the 2019 summit in Hanoi, Vietnam, a few years ago, because North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and then U.S. President Donald Trump failed to agree on the key prerequisites required to move forward with North Korea's denuclearization.

General thoughts are that the conditions aren't looking favorable for President Yoon's foreign and inter-Korean policies, in terms of advancing Seoul-Pyongyang relations, as the continued tension between the United States and China and the U.S.-backed EU and Russia could make the North side with China and Russia further. Both China and Russia hold permanent seats on the U.N. Security Council.

The European Union (EU) has recently approved Ukraine's candidate status to join the bloc, the first official step before full membership. This step is viewed by many as the EU's support for Washington's move for an expanded role of NATO in terms of extended deterrence against Russian aggression and China's growing influence. Previously, NATO had said it intended to focus more on China, as Beijing is now taking up a lot of the security bloc's attention as strategies need to be formed so as to deal with it being a growing threat moving forward.

Plus, Washington dismissed Beijing's concerns regarding the participation of four Asian countries including South Korea and Japan in this year's NATO Summit, by saying China has no authority to do so. China, North Korea's economic lifeline, is viewing the war in Ukraine as a future reflection of the new tensions that could materialize between the NATO allies and Beijing in the Indo-Pacific.

A North Korean military guard post in the distance and a South Korean guard post in the foreground, are seen in Paju near the border between the two countries, South Korea on April 26. AP-Yonhap

"From North Korea's standpoint, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the tension between Washington and Beijing have reawakened the stronger necessity of owning more nuclear weapons so as to possibly break U.S. military attacks, giving a huge justification for Pyongyang to hold on to its nuclear capability regardless of any costs," a senior aide to former President Moon Jae-in told The Korea Times.

Seoul's unification ministry confirmed that the ministry was expecting to see increased military provocations by North Korea. The North's Kim recently convened a high-profile military meeting and asked his top lieutenants to add operation duties to its frontline units and also modify operation plans. Washington and Seoul officials are concerned over an imminent nuclear test by North Korea, ministry officials said.

President Yoon at NATO summit

During his scheduled bilateral summits on the sidelines of this year's NATO Summit, President Yoon is set to share his thoughts on how to rejuvenate the dialogue momentum on the North Korean nuclear issue and his draft also on how to restart the North's denuclearization process, said officials at the presidential office.

Political analysts say no major announcements will be made regarding details of the revival of dialogue between interested parties for the North's denuclearization process, as the North's denuclearization isn't the primary item on the agenda for the NATO Summit. President Yoon is expected to focus on having interactions with the heads of the states coming to the summit and reaffirming the significance of the trilateral relationship between Seoul, Tokyo and Washington in terms of securing regional security.

"But I would say President Yoon needs to learn the limits of former President Moon's 'shuttle diplomacy' on the North Korean nuclear issue. Given the huge complexity of North Korean nuclear issues ― no one country can handle it on its own. Yoon needs to have his brand positioning statement regarding these issues. The Yoon administration will likely maintain 'deliberate ambiguity' on North Korean issues ― an action-for-action and deal-for-deal stance ― therefore, it seems sensible for Yoon to take the role of a balancer," said Lee Sang-sook, a research professor at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security, adding that the heightened tension between Washington and Beijing would benefit North Korea both politically and economically.

The limits of former President Moon Jae-in's shuttle diplomacy are that despite his concerted efforts in brokering dialogue between Trump and the North Korean leader, Moon didn't say anything specific in terms of the direction, as he described himself as a mediator and facilitator.

Health officials at the Pyongyang Sports Goods Factory disinfect the floor, Pyongyang, North Korea, June 14. AP-Yonhap

From the very beginning, North Korea asked the United States to provide security guarantees and partial sanctions relief as key conditions to advance denuclearization talks. However, Washington didn't accept these terms, saying instead that a provision of any rewards will only be possible after the start of the North's denuclearization steps.

"We had no way but to remain calm despite the North's various military provocations because we wanted to keep the momentum of North Korea-centric engagement and Moon's role as a mediator alive. Also, we had to maintain a stronger Washington-Seoul alliance by showing off military readiness via joint military exercises. The Moon administration failed to apply its firm responses regarding the North's decoupling and the U.S.' counter-decoupling strategies," said another former senior aide to Moon.

By recalling this situation, he advised President Yoon to focus on exploring ways to implement "crisis management" on North Korean nuclear issues as the resolution of these issues is a lengthy process that requires a lot of compromises, setbacks and years.

"The collapse in Hanoi questioned the validity of South Korea's role in the process aimed at denuclearizing North Korea. This also raised an issue of trust between the leaders of the two Koreas, a hidden factor for the impasse in the denuclearization talks," the former senior aide said.

"The new government needs to define clearly the red lines it can accept throughout discussions with the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, as well as Japan, and to define measures available if red lines were crossed," he added.

"Korea's joining of the IPEF, the Ukraine crisis and China's concerns regarding NATO's expanded role are forcing President Yoon to act in the role of a 'balancer' and chief of crisis management on the North Korean nuclear issue. Fundamental points of contention still remain: North Korea is already a nuclear state, economic sanctions on the regime still persist and no peace treaty has yet been made," according to him.

A recent survey conducted by the Peaceful Unification Advisory Council, a local think tank, showed that 63 percent supported the idea of the government pursuing "action-for-action rapprochement" in handling North Korean issues. Among the respondents, 30.5 percent preferred the idea of CVID (complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization) as the top goal that the government should focus on, followed by the improvement of relations between the two Koreas with 30.3 percent. This survey was carried out with 1,000 people with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at a 95-percent confidence level.

Restoration of GSOMIA? Japan's role in denuclearization process

As the NATO Summit is set to embrace updates to its key role(s) ― which will set the alliance's values and strategic objectives for the next decade ― as its main agenda items, President Yoon will try to find ways to improve Seoul's relationship with Tokyo.

This compilation image shows President Yoon Seok-yeol, left, U.S. President Joe Biden, center, and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. Yonhap

"Maintaining a stronger Seoul-Washington-Tokyo relationship is viewed as the essential point in dealing with North Korean nuclear issues; the view is also shared by U.S. officials. Japan hopes to take an active role on North Korean issues, which former U.S. President Trump supported but former President Moon didn't support. Given the high level of economic ties with Washington, Tokyo's role in the North's denuclearization process should not be underestimated. In the wake of the Ukraine conflict, the launch of the IPEF, U.S. attention to strengthening the Quad and the Indo-Pacific strategy, Japan will ask the United States to restore GSOMIA with Korea," said Jin Chang-soo, chief of Japanese studies at the Sejong Institute.

The General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) was launched in November 2016 to share military information between the two countries on North Korea. South Korea notified Japan of its termination of the pact in August 2019 because of disputes over historical issues. Seoul's Foreign Minister Park Jin said recently that he was hoping to restore GSOMIA.

However, any imminent breakthrough regarding the restoration of GSOMIA won't happen as the presidential office said there won't be even "pull-aside" meetings between Yoon and his Japanese counterpart, Fumio Kishida, on the sidelines of the summit. An official trilateral summit between U.S. President Joe Biden, Yoon and Kishida will occur on June 29 in the afternoon (KST), the first time in four years and nine months, said the official, adding that the chances are low for holding a quadrilateral meeting between the heads of Korea, Australia, New Zealand and Japan during the summit.

"Public opinion still remains very critical of Japan in the wake of disputes over the issue of forced labor during the Japanese occupation on the Korean Peninsula," said one official, adding that some low-level interactions will happen between Yoon and Kishida.

"Because a lot of sensitive issues still remain to be addressed before holding the bilateral summit between Korea and Japan, Yoon and Kishida are expected to express friendly gestures on the sidelines of their participation in the trilateral summit. Even if they don't, the restoration of GSOMIA will help Yoon to act as a 'balancer' on North Korean nuclear issues," Jin said.