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| President Yoon Suk-yeol, left, shakes hands with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, on the sidelines of the G-20 leaders' summit in Bali, Indonesia, Tuesday. UPI-Yonhap |
Yoon can't handle fallout due to low approval rating, but North Korea's nuclear test could change mood
By Jung Min-ho
Despite North Korea's intensifying nuclear and missile threats, South Korea is unlikely to take steps for the installment of additional U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) batteries in its territory unless North Korea conducts another nuclear weapons test, experts said Wednesday.
Their assessment comes after China's President Xi Jinping showed little interest in resolving security issues regarding North Korea during Monday's summit with U.S. President Joe Biden in Bali. Speaking to reporters afterward, Biden said his administration would do what is necessary to protect itself and its allies even if that means being "more up in the face" of China.
Two former White House security officials ― Dennis Wilder and Gary Samore ― said during an interview with Radio Free Asia that one of the U.S.' possible moves could be to deploy another THAAD system in South Korea, which will certainly draw a hostile reaction from Beijing.
"It is easier said than done," Jeong Han-bum, an international relations professor at Korea National Defense University, told The Korea Times. "The economy is in bad shape now and it will get worse if China takes retaliatory economic measures just like it did last time. There will be a lot of political tension over, say, where to locate the new THAAD unit, and President Yoon Suk-yeol does not have a high enough approval rating to be able to handle the issue."
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| U.S. President Joe Biden poses during a virtual summit with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, in the White House in Washington, D.C., in this Nov. 15, 2021, file photo. AFP-Yonhap |
For Biden, such rhetoric is politically reasonable, given that China-bashing would be good for his popularity at home. "But spending more money and sending additional troops for a new THAAD unit is a different story," Jeong added.
As a presidential candidate, Yoon pledged to work with Biden to install an additional THAAD unit in an effort to build up South Korea's defense systems against evolving threats from the North. But China has opposed the further deployment, claiming the real target of the U.S. system is China, not the North, as the THAAD radar can be reconfigured to peer deep into its territory. Following the South Korean government's decision in 2017 to install a THAAD unit in Seongju, North Gyeongsang Province, Beijing retaliated by unofficially suspending Chinese group tours to South Korea and damaging the China business of South Korean companies in "THAAD retaliation."
If South Korea and the U.S. ever agree to increase THAAD deployment, the location would likely be in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, where U.S. military bases and key military facilities are situated, according to Shin Jong-woo, a senior researcher at the Korea Defense and Security Forum.
"The area is expected to be the prime target of the North Korean military if a conflict occurs. More THAAD units will surely improve our missile defense system," Shin said.
North Korea has conducted weapons tests at an unprecedented pace this year, firing dozens of ballistic missiles. Intelligence reports show that Pyongyang is now set for its first nuclear weapons test since 2017. Yet China, along with Russia, has used its veto power at the United Nations Security Council to thwart any attempts for additional sanctions on the North.
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At Tuesday's summit with Xi, Yoon called for China to play an "active and constructive role" in reining in North Korea to stop its provocations, but the Chinese leader promised nothing.
All this suggests a widening rift between Seoul and Beijing and an ominous sign of what could happen if North Korea follows through with its next nuclear test, said Kim Sung-joo, an honorary professor in the political science and diplomacy department at Sungkyunkwan University.
"Although I do not think the deployment of an additional THAAD unit is imminent, the Yoon administration is clearly heading in that direction. If the North conducts a nuclear test, it will change the atmosphere and may prompt the move," Kim said. "The administration recently announced its Indo-Pacific strategy (of the rules-based international order built on universal values), which gives the impression that South Korea is taking the U.S.' side. I think China has noticed. All this makes it even more challenging to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue through diplomacy."
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