Is Kim Jong-un emulating Putin's saber-rattling?

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, left, holds hands with Russian leader Vladimir Putin before they hold a summit in Vladivostok, Russia, in this April 25, 2019 file photo. Korea Times file

Effectiveness of US-led deterrence against North Korea called into question

By Kang Hyun-kyung

The latest developments in North Korea's provocations show that its leader Kim Jong-un has become dangerously bolder and more fearless.

Kim gave the North Korean military the green light to go ahead with the launches of two short-range ballistic missiles that flew over the East Sea on Thursday, the day when South Korea, the United States and Japan conducted another trilateral military exercise, following the first one on Sept. 30. The U.S. nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan joined both drills.

Later in the day, 12 North Korean warplanes ― eight fighter jets and four bombers ― flew in a squadron formation, staying within North Korean airspace but on the southern side of a surveillance line set by the South, presumably in response to the trilateral maritime exercise. The warplanes conducted air-to-ground firing drills. The South Korean military reacted swiftly by mobilizing 30 F-15 K fighters which confronted the North Korean jets in the air for approximately an hour.

Such antagonistic air drills by North Korea are unprecedented.

The North's dangerous course of action has brought the U.S.-led deterrence against North Korea into question, partly because the Nimitz-class supercarrier USS Ronald Reagan is part of the U.S.' strategic military assets designed to deter its enemies, including North Korea, from provocations rather than invite further ones.

"It's possible that the North Koreans want the U.S. and South Korea to think that any efforts to deter the DPRK's provocative behavior would be met with commensurate retaliation," Soo Kim, a policy analyst at the Rand Corporation, told The Korea Times.

DPRK stands for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, which is North Korea's official name.

"And perhaps Pyeongyang banks on the small chance that U.S.-led deterrence would indeed be discouraged as a result of the Kim regime's aggressive behavior. The hope, however, is that the U.S. would not be discouraged so, and instead continue to demonstrate alliance solidarity and the will to execute effective deterrence against the DPRK's provocations," Kim said.

The analyst said the fact that North Korea has caught the attention of the leaders of South Korea, the United States and Japan ― as seen in a flurry of phone talks among them earlier this week ― could be seen, in a way, as encouraging.

"This is a time where alliance solidarity and a swift and effective response to North Korea's provocations are necessary. It's also important for the allies to not simply react to the North Korean missile tests in a mechanical way, but to respond commensurately in a way, appropriate to the type and intent of each provocation," she said.

Some other experts, especially those based in the United States and Britain, view North Korea's Kim to be emulating Russian leader Vladimir Putin, who threatened to use nuclear weapons after facing major setbacks in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Recently, the Russian leader issued renewed threats that he would resort to using weapons of mass destruction.

"Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un (and his sister Yo-jong) have normalized the idea of preemptive nuclear strikes on their neighbor by frequently talking about it," Sung-yoon Lee, a professor at Tufts University, said. "In April, the Kim siblings took a page from Putin's playbook and issued their first nuclear threat against South Korea. Kim Jong-un did it again in July and September. Hence it is not surprising that he is escalating tension on several levels even as South Korea and the U.S. have resumed live military exercises."

The U.S. carrier USS Ronald Reagan is escorted as it arrives in Busan, South Korea on Sept. 23. AP-Yonhap

In the Western media, Kim Jong-un is likened to Putin as they have both threatened to use nuclear weapons.

But Hyun In-ae, a professor of North Korea studies at Ewha Womens University in Seoul, disagreed.

"North Koreans don't like to follow or emulate others. Just as its 'juche' ideology suggests, they were taught to find their own path, rather than follow or mimic what others did," she told The Korea Times.

However, Hyun said she would not rule out the possibility that the North Korean leader was encouraged to maintain his course based on Putin's actions.

"It's true that North Korea rarely cares about others and about how others feel about them, and this is why they keep destabilizing regional peace by test-firing missiles and conducting nuclear tests. But deep inside in his heart, the North Korean leader must feel insecurity about his actions as he is depicted as a troubled loner responsible for regional and international insecurity," she said. "Thus, Putin, who orchestrated Russia's invasion of Ukraine and drew condemnation from the international community, would make the North Korean leader feel that he is not alone. Hence Putin's supportive role for North Korea's Kim."

Cheong Seong-chang, director of the Center for North Korean Studies at The Sejong Institute, said that Kim and Putin are not comparable when it comes to their motives and goals with nuclear weapons.

"Kim and Putin may be viewed as similar types of politicians by people with a limited understanding of the two countries and their circumstances in that they both are portrayed as insane and hostile. But they are two very different people," he said.

Putin went to war with Ukraine because he wanted to annex the country. But the purpose of Kim's nuclear bombs and provocations has nothing to do with territorial ambitions, according to Cheong.

"Putin started the war with conventional weapons. If a war breaks out on the Korean Peninsula, it is highly likely that Kim would resort to nuclear weapons from the get-go, because North Korea falls far behind the South in conventional weapons capabilities. So he would go for a nuclear option from the start," he said.

Kim Jong-un, left, and Russian leader Vladimir Putin toast with Russian wine after a summit on April 25, 2019 in Russia. Korea Times file

Amid speculation of the alleged shared traits between Kim and Putin, the North Korean leader's congratulatory letter sent to Putin on his 70th birthday was made public in North Korea's state-controlled newspaper on Friday.

Kim lauded Putin for his "energetic leadership," saying it played a critical role in modern-day Russia's "remarkable accomplishments for the realization of the country's grand strategic goals" and for this reason, he is "admired and widely supported by fellow Russians."

"Russia nowadays was able to thwart challenges and threats posed by the United States and its followers because of your excellent leadership and strong will to protect Russia's dignity and national interest from them," the letter reads.

Kim then vowed to lift North Korea-Russia relations to the next level.

Regarding the North's continued provocations, Lee said North Korea's forthcoming key anniversary could have motivated Kim opt for bolder moves.

"Kim is setting the stage for a bigger provocation, which may come as soon as the Party Founding Day anniversary on Oct. 10," he observed.

His remarks indicate that as the key anniversary is approaching, the North Korean leader may want to boost the morale of his military, as well as the North Korean public, to make them feel proud of their "great nation and great leader."