Working-age population to plunge 35% over next 30 years

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Korea's working-age population is expected to plunge 35 percent over the next 30 years amid the country's record low birthrate and rapidly aging population, a government estimate showed Thursday.

The working-age population, or people aged 15 to 64, is expected to reach 24.19 million in 2050, down from 37.38 million in 2020, according to the latest medium variant projection by Statistics Korea.

Such people took up 72.1 percent of the 52 million population in 2020, but the share will decline to 51.1 percent of 47.36 million people in 30 years, the estimate showed.

The gloomy outlook comes as Korea is struggling with demographic challenges due to a chronic decline in childbirths and rapid aging.

The country's total fertility rate ― the average number of children a woman could bear in her lifetime ― hit an all-time low of 0.81 last year, down from 0.84 in 2020, and the fourth straight year the rate was below 1 percent.

A continued fall in the working-age population spawns concerns the country's growth potential could be eroded.

Except for the administrative city of Sejong, all 16 provinces and major cities will likely see the working-age population fall in 2050 from 2020, the estimate showed.

The working population is expected to post a fall of more than 40 percent in nine provinces and cities, led by the southeastern cities of Ulsan and Daegu with 50.6 percent and 49 percent, respectively.

Rapid aging will sharply boost the percentage of people aged 65 or older of the total population over the next 30 years.

The number of those aged 65 or older is expected to reach 19 million in 2050, more than doubling from 8.15 million in 2020, and exceeding the milestone of 10 million for the first time in 2024.

Around 40 percent of people in Korea will be over 65 in 2050, compared with 15.7 percent in 2020.

Korea became an aged society in 2017, in which the percentage of those aged 65 or older exceeded 14 percent of its population. The country is widely expected to become a super-aged society in 2025, when the percentage of older adults will top 20 percent.

In 2050, the proportion of such people will take up the highest rate of 49.5 percent in South Jeolla Province, followed by 48.9 percent in North Gyeongsang Province.

The data also showed 13 provinces and cities, including Seoul and the southern port city of Busan, will see their residents decline in 2050, compared with 30 years ago.

The number of people living in the capital will likely reach 7.92 million in 2050, down 17.7 percent from 9.62 million in 2020, the statistics agency said. (Yonhap)

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