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By Kim Bo-eun
The Korea International Trade Association (KITA) on Wednesday warned of risks ahead of U.S. tapering measures, as Korea's exports to emerging economies with weak fiscal conditions could slow down.
The KITA-affiliated Institute for International Trade issued a report stating that tapering implemented by the U.S. since the global financial crisis in 2008 increased uncertainty in emerging economies with high fiscal risks, affecting Korea's exports to these countries.
The share of trade involving emerging economies as a percentage of global trade steadily increased from 26.1 percent in 2002, to 40.8 percent in 2014, but since 2014, after the U.S. took tapering measures, the percentage of trade involving emerging economies stopped growing, remaining at around 40 percent.
In particular, the percent of trade involving countries such as Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa, which were classified as financially vulnerable during the financial crisis, shrank. In 2015, when the interest rate hikes began, global imports to these countries fell by 10 percent year-on-year, and by 18 percent in 2016. In addition, the percentages occupied by these countries in the world trade and the import markets in 2016 decreased by 1.0 percentage point and 0.6 percentage point, respectively, compared to 2013.
As import demand from emerging economies contracted, Korea's percentage of exports to emerging economies also fell by 1.4 percentage points to 53.3 percent in 2016, from 54.7 percent in 2013.
But the report noted that considering that exports to the five major emerging economies of China, Vietnam, Taiwan, India and Mexico account for about 75 percent of Korea's total exports to emerging countries, even if exports to several emerging countries decrease, due to the U.S. tapering in the coming months, that should not affect overall exports to a great extent.
Of the 30 major emerging economies, only 12 countries accounted for more than 1 percent of Korea's total exports, and only Vietnam (8.7 percent) and China (25.1 percent) accounted for more than 5 percent of Korea's exports.
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